NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	8.7 [162]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +67.1%
Houston Rockets	110		Comeback	12.1 [168]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -21.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.67	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.34,0.67	0.21	0.45	-0.01	26	63%	0.67	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0.23	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23	0.11	0.10	-0.02	14	75%	0.28	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.06
Udonis Haslem	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.08	-0.00	6	83%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.13	-0.01	7	57%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21	-0.04	-0.20	-0.02	18	44%	-0.13	2	-0.08	7	43%	-0.21

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.14	0.23	-0.02	17	66%	0.40	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.04
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.08	0.20	-0.01	4	100%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.01	14	57%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Omer Asik	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	8	63%	0.15	3	-0.06	14	79%	0.03
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	10	40%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	17	49%	-0.01	2	-0.04	11	82%	0.02
Jeremy Lin	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.16	-0.02	8	50%	-0.12	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	34.5	16.8	26.2	2.7	35.0	142.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.9%

HOU -30.9%

MIA +33.6%

HOU -9.8%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	14.4	15.5	15.4	118.9	113.4	104.1
season	15.7	14.2		110.2	107.9
opponent	15.4	15.9		105.0	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.8	12.9	15.8	16.8	14.4
HOU	15.5	14.2	15.5	17.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	44	46	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.51	17	-14	31	13.3	15.5	-2.18	16.6	14.6	2.02
Chris Bosh	66	66	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.46	11	-8	19	14.1	15.3	-1.25	16.6	13.3	3.27
LeBron James	76	76	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.49	8	-5	13	14.4	14.7	-0.30	16.4	12.4	4.04
Dwyane Wade	80	83	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.29	13	-10	23	14.0	16.7	-2.64	15.6	15.0	0.64
Ray Allen	49	51	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.53	-2	5	-7	15.3	13.5	1.74	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Mario Chalmers	53	53	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.13	2	1	1	14.8	13.9	0.92	15.9	15.1	0.75
Rashard Lewis	21	21	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.08	-4	7	-11	14.5	14.4	0.04	12.8	16.3	-3.55
Norris Cole	31	32	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	0.02	-12	15	-27	14.4	14.5	-0.03	14.1	16.2	-2.12
Udonis Haslem	32	34	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.04	-11	14	-25	15.1	14.1	0.94	13.0	16.9	-3.88

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toney Douglas	25	27	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.05	13	-16	29	14.5	15.9	-1.38	17.5	13.2	4.30
Marcus Morris	33	36	0.30	-0.80	1.11	0.10	7	-10	17	16.5	15.0	1.51	16.8	13.0	3.85
Omer Asik	68	66	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.16	-2	-1	-1	15.1	16.5	-1.34	14.2	15.0	-0.75
Terrence Jones	2	1	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-3	3	10.5	15.7	-5.15	10.0	14.5	-4.49
Carlos Delfino	47	47	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.62	19	-22	41	14.1	16.9	-2.79	15.8	13.1	2.66
Patrick Patterson	72	69	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.50	-9	6	-15	16.1	13.8	2.30	13.9	15.8	-1.83
Chandler Parsons	84	82	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.26	-18	15	-33	15.7	14.6	1.08	13.9	17.8	-3.85
James Harden	82	79	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.54	-9	6	-15	15.8	14.4	1.36	13.8	17.7	-3.90
Jeremy Lin	72	68	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.46	-16	13	-29	15.9	14.5	1.38	13.2	17.5	-4.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.83,0.91,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 114, MIL 110	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.68,0.72,0	91.1%
MIA 106, CHA 105	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.79,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.68,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.96,0	90.1%
LAC 105, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.83,0.89,0.83,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.58,0	89.8%