NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	121		Excitement	6.9 [404]		MVP	Keith Bogans (ORL): +17.1%
Indiana Pacers	115		Comeback	2.4 [591]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (IND): -12.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.09	0.01	8	80%	0.23	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.01	16	70%	0.24	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
Maurice Evans	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.01	11	67%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.04	0.03	5	84%	0.15	2	-0.03	9	100%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	3	87%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	11	63%	0.15	3	-0.14	8	75%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.05	0.04	13	57%	0.04	4	-0.12	16	50%	-0.09

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	-0.01	-0.01	12	71%	0.10	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	8	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kareem Rush	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	-0.01	-0.03	13	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.16	-0.04	0.11	17	63%	0.02	0	0.00	12	100%	0.06
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.01	4	64%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.05
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.04	15	50%	0.04	5	-0.16	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.6	31.2	15.7	29.0	2.0	40.3	144.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +70.8%

IND -2.3%

IND -7.3%

IND -11.4%

ORL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	14.1	14.3	15.4	117.5	115.0	105.7
season	15.1	13.8		109.9	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.6		105.6	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.6	15.0	15.1	13.0	14.1
IND	14.1	15.7	14.3	13.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	94	90	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.24	17	-11	28	13.8	17.1	-3.29	14.3	14.1	0.19
Hedo Turkoglu	84	82	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.33	10	-4	14	13.7	15.7	-2.00	13.9	15.9	-1.97
Maurice Evans	83	80	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.17	13	-7	20	13.7	15.6	-1.92	14.2	14.4	-0.22
Carlos Arroyo	63	59	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.15	12	-6	18	14.0	14.3	-0.36	13.9	14.8	-0.91
Rashard Lewis	66	65	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	-3	12	15.3	11.9	3.37	15.3	12.3	3.05
Keith Bogans	56	56	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.30	-3	9	-12	13.7	14.5	-0.78	13.6	15.1	-1.43
Keyon Dooling	41	42	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.17	-6	12	-18	14.0	14.1	-0.10	14.6	14.0	0.60
Pat Garrity	6	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	9	-12	15.3	14.0	1.30	12.4	14.4	-1.98
Adonal Foyle	5	4	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.08	-9	15	-24	20.0	13.8	6.19	16.5	14.2	2.32
Brian Cook	17	15	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.10	-10	16	-26	14.3	14.1	0.22	14.8	14.2	0.62

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	39	38	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.25	10	-16	26	14.4	14.2	0.23	13.6	14.4	-0.84
Troy Murphy	44	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.29	8	-14	22	12.8	15.4	-2.63	13.2	14.9	-1.72
Jamaal Tinsley	45	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-9	12	14.4	14.2	0.24	14.2	14.0	0.14
Danny Granger	78	80	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.25	3	-9	12	14.2	14.6	-0.47	14.2	13.7	0.53
Shawne Williams	52	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-7	8	14.9	13.6	1.32	14.3	13.9	0.41
Travis Diener	54	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	5	-16	14.3	14.2	0.06	14.2	13.9	0.31
Jeff Foster	56	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.03	-14	8	-22	15.4	12.8	2.63	14.9	13.2	1.72
Kareem Rush	62	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.14	-14	8	-22	14.1	14.6	-0.54	14.2	13.9	0.38
Mike Dunleavy	70	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.17	-16	10	-26	13.9	15.1	-1.19	13.8	14.8	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.4,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.07,0.21,0.25,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, PHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.33,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.06,0,0	94.2%
BOS 93, TOR 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.17,0.08,0.17,0.07,0,0,0,0	93.4%
TOR 87, MIL 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.41,0.25,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.03,0.04,0,0,0	93.0%