NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	87		Excitement	6.2 [611]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +16.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	76		Comeback	1.9 [441]		LVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): -34.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.07	-0.04	17	53%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	22	62%	0.19	4	-0.07	9	100%	0.04
Norman Powell	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	7	67%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.02	5	100%	0.17	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Delon Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	16	29%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.03	0.04	12	79%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	-0.03	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.03	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.06
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.02	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	9	22%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.14	-0.09	0.00	13	34%	-0.09	4	-0.14	3	67%	-0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.23	-0.14	-0.03	19	33%	-0.12	7	-0.23	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.3	31.3	17.4	26.5	3.4	30.3	137.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +39.0%

TOR +16.1%

MIL -27.3%

TOR +25.2%

MIL -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	15.1	14.8	88.8	80.9	107.7
season	15.2	14.9		110.0	107.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		107.8	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.1	14.9	14.8	16.1	14.9
MIL	14.7	12.2	17.3	16.6	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	88	84	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.17	15	-4	19	14.7	17.3	-2.63	15.3	12.8	2.53
Norman Powell	68	67	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.15	15	-4	19	14.4	16.1	-1.67	16.0	12.8	3.21
DeMar DeRozan	81	79	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-4	19	14.8	15.4	-0.57	14.7	16.8	-2.07
Jonas Valanciunas	44	42	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	0	11	16.1	14.0	2.09	14.4	15.6	-1.19
PJ Tucker	58	55	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	4	3	15.3	14.4	0.95	14.6	15.8	-1.21
DeMarre Carroll	40	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	7	-3	14.4	15.3	-0.95	15.8	14.6	1.21
Patrick Patterson	18	16	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	9	-7	15.1	14.9	0.14	13.4	15.4	-2.04
Serge Ibaka	54	52	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	11	-11	14.0	16.1	-2.09	15.6	14.4	1.19
Delon Wright	23	21	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.12	-6	17	-23	16.7	14.4	2.24	15.5	14.9	0.53
Cory Joseph	16	15	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.05	-8	19	-27	16.5	14.6	1.87	12.4	15.6	-3.17

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	23	25	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-16	21	16.0	14.8	1.18	16.1	14.5	1.53
Thon Maker	48	50	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-8	5	14.4	15.8	-1.41	14.1	15.8	-1.67
Michael Beasley	28	30	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-14	17	15.0	15.1	-0.04	15.3	14.8	0.47
Matthew Dellavedova	37	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-12	13	15.4	14.8	0.56	15.8	14.4	1.42
Malcolm Brogdon	57	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	1	-13	14.8	15.4	-0.56	14.4	15.8	-1.42
Khris Middleton	73	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	1	-13	14.7	16.3	-1.63	14.4	16.6	-2.19
Tony Snell	75	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	2	-15	14.7	16.5	-1.77	14.9	15.0	-0.14
Greg Monroe	46	48	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.24	-8	-3	-5	15.8	14.4	1.41	15.8	14.1	1.67
Giannis Antetokounmpo	83	86	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.14	-16	5	-21	15.5	12.0	3.47	15.0	14.8	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.41,0.25,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.03,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, PHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.33,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.06,0,0	93.7%
PHI 81, TOR 75	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.45,0.46,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0	93.4%
SAS 102, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.29,0.15,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.3%