NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	117		Excitement	2.0 [1293]		MVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): +8.3%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	1.1 [1049]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -9.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rajon Rondo	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.17	0.00	0.08	10	79%	0.08	1	-0.00	9	78%	0.01
Tony Allen	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.05	12	65%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Leon Powe	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.16	0.00	0.10	13	71%	0.06	1	0.00	9	78%	-0.00
Eddie House	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	15	62%	0.02	4	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.02	0.04	5	64%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Glen Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Gabe Pruitt	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	9	35%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luke Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.11	0.00	0.12	7	87%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	4	0%	-0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	10	36%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	39%	-0.02	1	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	62%	-0.02	3	-0.01	6	67%	-0.02
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	0.00	0.11	12	61%	-0.02	2	-0.02	9	67%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.14	0.00	-0.09	6	0%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.02	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.00	-0.04	9	30%	-0.03	4	-0.06	5	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.4	32.0	15.5	30.6	2.6	27.3	140.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +35.1%

BOS +1.5%

BOS +5.1%

BOS +7.6%

BOS +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	15.1	15.4	119.4	88.8	105.7
season	15.6	16.0		108.0	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.9		108.3	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	11.7	14.4	15.3	16.0	14.3
MIA	15.4	15.0	16.0	14.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	69	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.52	32	-2	34	13.3	16.4	-3.10	15.4	14.5	0.87
Paul Pierce	58	59	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.45	28	2	26	13.4	15.4	-2.00	15.9	14.0	1.86
James Posey	53	53	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.13	17	13	4	14.5	13.9	0.61	15.0	15.3	-0.27
Leon Powe	75	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	18	-6	14.5	13.6	0.86	14.5	17.0	-2.45
Rajon Rondo	52	52	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.40	25	5	20	12.8	15.9	-3.02	16.3	13.8	2.53
Glen Davis	46	46	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	21	-12	15.7	13.0	2.65	14.4	15.8	-1.38
Eddie House	46	46	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	25	-20	15.9	12.8	3.02	13.8	16.3	-2.53
Brian Scalabrine	33	32	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.31	15	15	0	14.2	14.3	-0.13	15.9	14.8	1.12
Kendrick Perkins	38	37	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.34	16	14	2	13.7	14.6	-0.99	15.6	14.9	0.72
Gabe Pruitt	20	20	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	39	-48	16.3	13.7	2.62	14.2	15.4	-1.16

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	44	44	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.33	12	-42	54	13.8	16.2	-2.37	15.9	12.9	3.02
Luke Jackson	40	39	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-29	28	15.4	14.9	0.43	15.6	13.4	2.29
Dorell Wright	43	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-26	22	14.5	15.6	-1.13	14.9	13.7	1.19
Earl Barron	46	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.29	-17	-13	-4	14.7	15.5	-0.80	14.3	14.2	0.07
Alexander Johnson	39	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.20	-14	-16	2	15.7	14.7	1.03	14.5	14.1	0.43
Daequan Cook	40	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-22	14	14.6	15.4	-0.80	14.5	14.1	0.37
Mark Blount	54	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.29	-19	-11	-8	15.8	14.3	1.46	13.8	14.8	-0.97
Udonis Haslem	34	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.28	-20	-10	-10	14.8	15.3	-0.55	13.5	14.7	-1.17
Jason Williams	38	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.55	-30	0	-30	16.0	14.6	1.39	12.7	15.2	-2.54
Ricky Davis	54	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.34	-24	-6	-18	15.4	14.8	0.51	13.9	14.7	-0.81
Dwyane Wade	58	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.35	-25	-5	-20	15.5	14.6	0.88	13.5	15.5	-2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 99, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.2%
UTA 137, NYK 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.28,0.33,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.1%
SAC 124, NYK 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%