NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	96		Excitement	7.2 [349]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +36.5%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	4.3 [271]		LVP	Ricky Davis (MIA): -19.4%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawne Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	14	69%	0.16	4	-0.12	8	100%	0.05
Marquis Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	15	41%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Jeff Foster	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andre Owens	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06	-0.00	-0.08	-0.02	9	57%	0.01	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Travis Diener	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	0.00	16	37%	-0.08	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.37	0.37	0.17	0.19	-0.00	20	69%	0.45	3	-0.08	11	82%	0.03
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.16	-0.01	14	61%	0.28	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	7	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	11	64%	0.11	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	11	55%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	22%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	7	14%	-0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.6	25.8	16.8	22.9	2.4	34.4	131.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.6%

IND -3.6%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +7.7%

MIA +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	13.1	15.9	15.4	97.0	98.0	105.7
season	13.8	16.0		104.5	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.2		108.3	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	11.5	11.7	16.0	13.4	13.1
MIA	14.6	17.8	13.5	17.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawne Williams	21	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.10	6	-8	14	12.4	13.3	-0.88	18.7	15.1	3.68
Jeff Foster	35	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-6	10	13.0	13.1	-0.11	17.0	15.2	1.82
Andre Owens	50	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.34	6	-8	14	12.8	13.4	-0.63	17.8	13.9	3.96
Marquis Daniels	25	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	4	-10	14.2	12.7	1.46	16.5	15.7	0.83
Travis Diener	49	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	6	-14	13.4	12.8	0.63	13.7	18.1	-4.48
Troy Murphy	64	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	4	-10	13.1	13.0	0.11	15.2	17.0	-1.82
Mike Dunleavy	80	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.34	-2	0	-2	13.2	12.6	0.54	15.3	18.1	-2.86
Danny Granger	85	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	0	-2	13.1	12.9	0.25	15.4	18.3	-2.83
Kareem Rush	86	87	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	0	-2	12.8	14.9	-2.13	16.0	14.6	1.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	71	68	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-10	22	14.6	18.8	-4.18	13.0	13.3	-0.27
Jason Williams	76	74	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	-2	6	15.4	17.5	-2.10	13.4	12.2	1.16
Ricky Davis	56	55	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.49	-1	3	-4	17.4	13.8	3.61	12.7	13.6	-0.94
Mark Blount	72	71	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.21	6	-4	10	15.4	17.0	-1.63	12.9	13.6	-0.75
Dwyane Wade	84	84	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.44	-2	4	-6	15.5	17.9	-2.47	13.5	10.6	2.91
Udonis Haslem	83	84	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.37	-3	5	-8	16.0	15.3	0.68	13.4	11.1	2.36
Daequan Cook	22	21	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	-2	6	15.9	15.8	0.06	13.5	13.0	0.51
Chris Quinn	15	16	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	6	-10	18.3	15.4	2.91	11.7	13.3	-1.58
Earl Barron	21	22	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.01	-6	8	-14	18.4	15.2	3.25	11.6	13.5	-1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.83,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.95,0.94,0.98,1	93.3%
MIL 86, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.3%
LAC 86, ORL 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	93.2%