NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	92		Excitement	5.9 [599]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +26.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	1.8 [721]		LVP	Shawne Williams (IND): -18.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.19	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.10	0.03	11	73%	0.22	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.05
Jeff Foster	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	6	87%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Kareem Rush	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.01	11	64%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Owens	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.01	12	52%	-0.02	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.04	0.05	17	57%	0.04	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.07	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.17	0.05	-0.04	29	58%	0.26	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	11	59%	0.08	2	-0.05	7	43%	-0.03
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	13	57%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Awvee Storey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	7	71%	0.07	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	29.3	18.5	26.2	0.5	28.6	129.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.9%

IND -11.5%

MIL +10.5%

MIL +9.6%

IND -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	14.2	18.0	15.4	102.2	116.9	105.7
season	13.8	15.8		104.5	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.2		110.7	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.0	14.8	14.2	12.7	14.2
MIL	15.6	20.4	17.9	18.6	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	49	48	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-13	14	13.8	14.6	-0.75	16.7	19.5	-2.76
Stephen Graham	5	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-12	12	8.0	14.5	-6.54	21.5	17.9	3.64
Andre Owens	18	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-6	0	12.9	14.5	-1.54	20.2	17.5	2.66
Mike Dunleavy	77	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-7	2	14.1	14.5	-0.33	17.6	20.3	-2.70
Shawne Williams	18	16	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	-3	-6	15.6	13.8	1.72	20.4	17.5	2.87
Danny Granger	72	73	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-9	6	13.8	15.6	-1.72	17.5	20.4	-2.87
Kareem Rush	65	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-8	4	14.2	14.0	0.25	17.4	19.8	-2.37
Travis Diener	74	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-4	-4	14.6	12.4	2.19	17.5	20.5	-3.02
Marquis Daniels	31	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	1	-14	14.9	13.8	1.16	19.9	16.9	2.99
Troy Murphy	41	41	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	1	-14	14.6	13.8	0.75	19.5	16.7	2.76

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Bell	54	55	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.09	18	-6	24	18.2	17.8	0.41	14.3	14.1	0.20
Michael Redd	85	85	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	2	8	17.8	22.7	-4.95	14.0	18.0	-4.05
Charlie Villanueva	31	31	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.17	10	2	8	19.8	17.1	2.74	14.0	14.3	-0.22
Royal Ivey	39	39	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	4	4	18.7	17.5	1.19	14.1	14.3	-0.22
Andrew Bogut	60	62	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.04	10	2	8	16.9	20.3	-3.44	14.0	14.7	-0.73
Michael Ruffin	29	28	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	10	-8	20.3	16.9	3.44	14.7	14.0	0.73
Mo Williams	64	66	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.05	9	3	6	18.2	17.5	0.75	14.4	13.5	0.87
Bobby Simmons	58	59	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	10	-8	17.1	19.8	-2.74	14.3	14.0	0.22
Yi Jianlian	25	25	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	21	-30	16.8	18.5	-1.64	14.4	14.1	0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.71,0.77,0.94,0.85,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 85, NOH 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.88,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
NYK 85, CHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.79,0.76,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.5%
UTA 113, DEN 126	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.3%