NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	5.4 [703]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +19.1%
Charlotte Bobcats	86		Comeback	1.7 [392]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): -19.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.05	-0.06	9	68%	0.19	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ime Udoka	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	69%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Richardson	0.01	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	15	48%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
Tony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	14	53%	0.00	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	17	50%	0.03	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	8	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.13	0.00	0.08	14	72%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	11	45%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.07	-0.04	18	34%	-0.05	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.08	-0.03	18	36%	-0.09	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.8	24.2	15.4	28.5	2.4	24.6	121.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.4%

SAS +1.0%

SAS +7.0%

CHA -3.2%

SAS +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHA	NBA	SAS	CHA	NBA
this game	16.6	16.3	15.4	109.2	97.7	105.7
season	16.5	15.8		104.7	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.3		107.8	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.4	16.2	15.2	18.7	16.6
CHA	16.3	15.8	16.8	16.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	52	54	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.02	19	-10	29	15.4	18.4	-2.95	16.0	16.7	-0.70
Brent Barry	46	46	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.00	16	-7	23	16.3	17.0	-0.69	16.1	16.5	-0.42
Ime Udoka	41	41	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	0	9	17.0	16.2	0.83	16.6	16.0	0.57
Michael Finley	46	46	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	6	-3	17.2	16.0	1.15	16.1	16.5	-0.46
Jacque Vaughn	30	29	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	6	-3	16.7	16.6	0.14	16.7	16.1	0.52
Tim Duncan	57	57	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	2	5	16.5	16.9	-0.39	16.2	16.6	-0.42
Fabricio Oberto	26	27	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	1	7	15.9	16.9	-0.98	17.1	16.0	1.11
Tony Parker	57	59	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	3	3	16.6	16.7	-0.14	16.1	16.7	-0.52
Matt Bonner	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.18	-6	15	-21	21.7	16.1	5.66	14.6	16.5	-1.85
Bruce Bowen	48	49	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	12	-15	15.9	17.5	-1.54	16.6	16.0	0.55
Francisco Elson	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	15	-21	23.0	16.3	6.70	13.2	16.5	-3.20
Jeremy Richardson	20	20	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.20	-11	20	-31	17.9	16.2	1.68	17.4	16.0	1.48

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff McInnis	55	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-11	13	17.1	14.9	2.24	16.4	17.0	-0.60
Jared Dudley	14	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-8	7	16.4	16.3	0.06	17.2	16.5	0.64
Emeka Okafor	54	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-11	13	15.8	17.1	-1.27	17.6	15.1	2.50
Raymond Felton	66	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-7	5	16.2	16.6	-0.38	17.1	15.3	1.71
Nazr Mohammed	34	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	2	-13	17.1	15.8	1.27	15.1	17.6	-2.50
Jason Richardson	84	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-5	1	16.2	19.2	-3.08	16.9	11.2	5.62
Gerald Wallace	78	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	4	-17	16.4	15.2	1.25	16.2	19.8	-3.53
Matt Carroll	55	53	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.16	-18	9	-27	15.6	17.5	-1.93	16.3	17.1	-0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.06,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 103, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.2%
VAN 107, TOR 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.2%
GSW 85, TOR 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0	94.1%