NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	107		Excitement	5.5 [711]		MVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): +13.6%
Toronto Raptors	97		Comeback	1.9 [176]		LVP	Mike Bibby (VAN): -12.6%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.03	-0.04	10	81%	0.20	4	-0.06	16	94%	0.09
Milt Palacio	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	79%	0.07	2	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Grant Long	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	5	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Felipe Lopez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Scott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Carr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Dickerson	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	15	52%	0.01	1	-0.04	10	80%	0.01
Bryant Reeves	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	15	47%	-0.00	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	8	50%	-0.01	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Oakley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	15	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	10	80%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	15	56%	0.04	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	12	46%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	17	50%	-0.01	5	-0.11	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.7	33.0	18.0	28.2	2.5	44.3	152.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +14.6%

VAN +27.6%

VAN +5.5%

VAN +0.7%

VAN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	TOR	NBA	VAN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	14.7	15.2	109.2	103.2	101.7
season	15.9	15.5		99.5	101.8
opponent	14.9	15.0		102.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	15.8	14.3	18.0	13.4	15.3
TOR	14.1	16.3	14.7	13.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Dickerson	92	88	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-1	12	15.5	12.5	2.97	14.3	20.5	-6.19
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	80	81	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	6	-2	16.0	11.9	4.16	15.1	12.2	2.96
Felipe Lopez	32	29	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	-1	12	11.8	17.0	-5.11	14.7	14.7	-0.02
Grant Long	42	42	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	1	8	13.0	17.0	-4.08	14.9	14.6	0.28
Milt Palacio	28	29	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	2	6	12.6	16.4	-3.80	14.4	14.8	-0.47
Mike Bibby	84	77	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	7	-4	15.7	12.5	3.25	14.4	16.1	-1.66
Othella Harrington	69	65	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	11	-12	17.1	10.9	6.23	14.7	14.8	-0.08
Antoine Carr	12	12	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	7	-4	12.7	15.7	-2.98	18.1	14.2	3.88
Bryant Reeves	37	33	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	9	-8	15.5	15.2	0.32	14.0	15.1	-1.04
Dennis Scott	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	9	-8	19.9	14.5	5.33	15.5	14.6	0.94

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	50	54	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.22	7	-17	24	14.8	14.6	0.25	16.4	13.9	2.46
John Thomas	6	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-6	2	15.7	14.6	1.03	13.3	15.4	-2.15
Antonio Davis	70	74	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-10	10	14.5	15.3	-0.85	15.7	14.1	1.59
Kevin Willis	15	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	0	-10	17.2	14.2	2.97	13.0	15.7	-2.70
Doug Christie	75	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-4	-2	14.5	15.4	-0.90	15.5	14.7	0.83
Vince Carter	84	89	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-5	0	14.4	17.2	-2.80	15.2	15.8	-0.54
Charles Oakley	70	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-7	4	14.9	14.2	0.61	16.5	11.5	4.96
Muggsy Bogues	46	46	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.13	-13	3	-16	14.5	14.9	-0.31	13.8	16.6	-2.87
Tracy McGrady	54	56	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.14	-16	6	-22	14.7	14.7	0.05	14.0	17.0	-2.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 95, CHA 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.06,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.2%
OKC 99, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.26,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0	94.2%
DET 91, MIA 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.34,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%