NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	5.3 [734]		MVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): +11.2%
Miami Heat	80		Comeback	1.7 [804]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -11.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.15	0.01	0.05	23	64%	0.17	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	4	36%	0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Jarvis Hayes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	9	48%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	14	50%	0.07	3	-0.11	10	90%	0.03
Ronald Murray	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	13	39%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	-0.01	0.04	19	59%	0.08	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	10	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	39%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	12	54%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	56%	0.02	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.06
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	3.7	30.2	20.4	28.8	0.8	30.4	144.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +1.9%

DET +17.0%

DET +11.1%

DET +9.6%

DET +10.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	15.0	15.4	96.8	87.0	105.7
season	16.8	16.0		108.8	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.8		108.3	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.2	17.5	14.1	18.5	16.0
MIA	14.0	15.9	15.9	14.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarvis Hayes	52	53	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.20	14	-3	17	16.4	15.4	0.98	14.8	15.3	-0.55
Rasheed Wallace	73	70	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.13	13	-2	15	16.1	15.4	0.69	14.9	15.3	-0.43
Ronald Murray	37	37	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.08	14	-3	17	16.8	15.4	1.39	15.7	14.5	1.19
Jason Maxiell	40	41	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	2	7	16.8	15.4	1.45	14.7	15.2	-0.46
Tayshaun Prince	84	80	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	3	5	16.5	11.3	5.22	15.2	13.5	1.71
Chauncey Billups	79	77	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	5	1	15.1	20.3	-5.19	14.6	17.2	-2.64
Nazr Mohammed	33	32	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	3	5	14.7	16.7	-2.01	14.2	15.4	-1.28
Arron Afflalo	30	29	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	20	-29	14.8	16.5	-1.72	15.0	15.0	0.07
Antonio McDyess	42	41	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.01	-8	19	-27	15.9	16.0	-0.07	16.1	14.1	1.96

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	45	48	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-12	13	15.2	14.8	0.46	15.6	16.4	-0.83
Chris Quinn	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	0.0	15.0	-14.99	1.0	16.1	-15.13
Alexander Johnson	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	0.0	15.0	-14.99	1.0	16.1	-15.13
Anfernee Hardaway	15	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-10	9	15.2	14.9	0.25	16.7	15.8	0.91
Udonis Haslem	59	63	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-7	3	14.8	15.3	-0.44	15.5	16.9	-1.44
Shaquille O'Neal	56	60	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-6	1	14.8	15.3	-0.47	15.6	16.6	-0.97
Jason Williams	81	82	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-8	5	14.7	17.0	-2.28	16.5	12.2	4.36
Alonzo Mourning	30	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.14	-3	-8	5	14.9	15.0	-0.13	18.0	15.1	2.89
Mark Blount	39	36	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.16	-12	1	-13	15.6	14.6	1.00	16.2	15.8	0.41
Ricky Davis	85	88	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	2	-15	15.0	14.7	0.30	15.5	22.3	-6.80
Smush Parker	50	48	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.10	-19	8	-27	15.1	14.8	0.29	16.3	15.6	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.34,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 107, TOR 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.1%
SAS 108, SAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.28,0.26,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
DAL 133, LAC 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%