NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	85		Excitement	5.4 [722]		MVP	Avery Johnson (GSW): +5.4%
Toronto Raptors	78		Comeback	1.5 [368]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): -19.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	8	65%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	4	80%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	19	54%	0.04	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.03
Troy Murphy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	7	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	13	43%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	11	59%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Robert Archibald	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	12	46%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	6	46%	-0.03	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	19	51%	0.03	4	-0.12	5	80%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	16	41%	-0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	11	18%	-0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	26.1	16.8	22.7	2.0	32.2	125.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +37.4%

GSW +5.6%

TOR -3.8%

GSW +10.2%

GSW +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	16.3	15.9	15.7	94.4	87.6	100.5
season	16.1	16.8		100.8	94.8
opponent	15.7	15.3		98.4	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	17.0	15.3	17.2	15.7	16.3
TOR	16.5	15.3	17.0	14.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	83	83	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	16.1	18.6	-2.49	16.0	15.2	0.79
Calbert Cheaney	56	55	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	-1	9	15.5	17.5	-2.01	15.4	16.8	-1.40
Clifford Robinson	63	62	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	2	3	15.7	17.7	-2.04	16.0	15.7	0.23
Adonal Foyle	36	34	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	2	3	15.8	16.6	-0.74	15.9	15.9	-0.07
Avery Johnson	46	45	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.24	2	5	-3	15.8	16.7	-0.92	15.0	16.8	-1.77
Erick Dampier	50	52	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	4	-1	17.5	14.8	2.71	16.4	15.2	1.12
Mike Dunleavy	47	47	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	3	1	16.0	16.6	-0.54	16.3	15.5	0.76
Troy Murphy	27	27	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.06	2	5	-3	17.7	15.7	2.04	15.7	16.0	-0.23
Mickael Pietrus	41	40	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	11	-15	17.7	15.1	2.63	16.5	15.4	1.14
Brian Cardinal	1	0	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	7	-7	5.0	16.4	-11.40	0.0	15.9	-15.90

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	22	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-7	7	17.2	15.5	1.76	18.7	15.4	3.25
Rod Strickland	11	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-2	-3	14.9	16.0	-1.13	15.0	16.5	-1.46
Chris Bosh	70	70	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-11	15	15.4	17.8	-2.47	16.8	14.4	2.35
Robert Archibald	24	24	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	0	-7	16.7	15.6	1.05	16.3	16.3	0.02
Donyell Marshall	68	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.27	0	-7	7	16.2	15.0	1.18	16.4	15.9	0.49
Michael Curry	29	29	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	3	-13	15.3	16.2	-0.87	15.2	16.8	-1.58
Vince Carter	75	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-3	-1	15.7	16.7	-0.97	16.1	17.3	-1.26
Morris Peterson	68	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-2	-3	15.9	15.9	-0.01	15.9	17.5	-1.58
Jalen Rose	78	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.31	-8	1	-9	16.0	15.0	1.03	16.1	17.6	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 103, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.13,0.18,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.05,0	94.2%
SAS 95, CHA 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.06,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.1%
MEM 103, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.12,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	94.0%