NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	109		Excitement	11.6 [24]		MVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): +53.3%
Toronto Raptors	116		Comeback	4.4 [330]		LVP	James Jones (POR): -10.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0.31	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.31	0.15	0.16	0.01	25	60%	0.34	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.05
Travis Outlaw	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3	-0.00	0.24	-0.06	18	49%	0.38	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.04
Channing Frye	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.10	0.01	10	73%	0.23	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	13	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.02	-0.01	16	35%	0.04	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.03	0.00	17	31%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53	0.53	0.13	0.39	-0.00	10	88%	0.60	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.05
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.01,0.15,0.28,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.31	0.31	0.12	0.19	-0.00	27	59%	0.37	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.04
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.10	0.04	16	74%	0.25	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.03	14	50%	0.14	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	6	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	27.4	18.8	25.4	2.7	42.0	1.6	14.3	2.5	15.3	175.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +46.9%

POR -18.4%

POR -4.6%

TOR +18.7%

TOR +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	TOR	NBA	POR	TOR	NBA
this game	18.2	15.2	15.4	107.9	107.4	105.7
season	16.7	15.6		105.5	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		105.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	17.5	17.1	18.4	17.8	21.1	18.2
TOR	13.4	13.6	16.8	16.5	16.7	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	44	48	0.45	-0.95	1.40	0.30	5	-12	17	17.4	18.8	-1.42	14.1	16.1	-1.96
James Jones	41	44	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.25	2	-9	11	17.1	18.9	-1.88	14.3	15.8	-1.51
Joel Przybilla	35	38	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.05	9	-16	25	17.6	18.5	-0.94	15.6	15.0	0.56
Martell Webster	67	72	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.19	3	-10	13	18.6	17.3	1.30	15.7	14.3	1.32
Sergio Rodriguez	25	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	1	-9	17.7	18.4	-0.68	14.0	15.6	-1.55
Brandon Roy	88	94	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.31	-4	-3	-1	18.6	15.6	2.95	15.5	13.6	1.89
Jarrett Jack	82	89	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.37	-11	4	-15	18.1	18.4	-0.29	15.2	15.1	0.13
Travis Outlaw	61	62	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.47	-12	5	-17	18.5	17.6	0.89	15.4	15.0	0.41
LaMarcus Aldridge	62	67	-1.22	0.72	-1.94	-0.66	-19	12	-31	18.8	17.3	1.48	15.8	14.2	1.60

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	101	94	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	0	7	15.5	10.9	4.66	18.5	13.6	4.96
Jamario Moon	68	62	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.61	-5	12	-17	15.5	14.7	0.81	18.1	18.3	-0.24
Jose Calderon	98	91	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	2	3	15.6	11.7	3.87	18.6	14.4	4.20
Anthony Parker	91	86	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.27	6	1	5	15.9	11.7	4.16	18.6	16.0	2.57
Joey Graham	13	12	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.04	7	0	7	11.4	15.7	-4.35	15.2	18.6	-3.33
Kris Humphries	15	16	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	2	3	15.7	15.1	0.60	16.2	18.6	-2.30
Carlos Delfino	73	70	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.07	5	2	3	15.0	15.6	-0.61	18.3	17.8	0.50
Darrick Martin	10	10	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	5	-3	11.7	15.6	-3.87	14.4	18.6	-4.20
Andrea Bargnani	28	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	7	-7	15.8	15.0	0.77	17.3	18.5	-1.27
Jason Kapono	18	15	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.15	3	4	-1	11.9	15.9	-3.92	16.0	18.6	-2.57
Rasho Nesterovic	16	14	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.02	-7	14	-21	15.0	15.2	-0.25	20.2	17.9	2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.53,0.67,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.27,0.54,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 109, NJN 120	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.63,0.69,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.84,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.23,0.28,0.54,0.45,0.85,0.85,0.95,1	88.0%
SAC 129, MIA 141	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.52,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.54,0.69,0.57,0.78,0.42,0.54,0.75,0.78,0.98,1,1	87.6%
DAL 87, SAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.27,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.65,0.72,0.9,0.9,0.98,1,1	87.4%