NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	7.2 [346]		MVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): +35.3%
Charlotte Bobcats	89		Comeback	21.7 [35]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): -21.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.16,0.35	0.14	0.25	0.04	15	68%	0.38	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.14,0.18	0.15	0.03	0.00	18	67%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.05
Bobby Simmons	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Michael Ruffin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	16	47%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	10	27%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Royal Ivey	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Yi Jianlian	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	25%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.01	17	58%	0.18	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	7	33%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	10	42%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,-0.08	-0.08	0.03	-0.10	0.01	9	65%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,-0.08,-0.22	-0.22	0.01	-0.22	0.01	12	69%	0.27	8	-0.49	12	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.6	25.2	15.7	24.4	2.4	36.9	132.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA -1.4%

CHA -2.4%

MIL +2.0%

MIL +55.6%

CHA -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHA	NBA	MIL	CHA	NBA
this game	16.5	16.8	15.4	106.9	103.5	105.7
season	15.8	15.8		103.4	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.2		107.8	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.7	16.5	19.6	14.8	16.5
CHA	17.9	14.8	17.4	17.3	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	59	59	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.50	12	-8	20	16.1	17.4	-1.27	16.4	17.7	-1.31
Andrew Bogut	61	63	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.32	14	-10	24	17.5	14.3	3.11	17.0	16.1	0.87
Charlie Bell	52	52	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.48	5	-1	6	15.9	17.4	-1.51	16.1	17.9	-1.80
Royal Ivey	66	64	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.45	4	0	4	16.6	16.4	0.13	17.5	14.6	2.86
Mo Williams	82	80	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	5	-6	16.7	13.2	3.53	16.6	19.5	-2.94
Charlie Villanueva	37	37	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.03	-7	11	-18	15.7	17.1	-1.39	15.6	17.7	-2.06
Yi Jianlian	53	52	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.28	3	1	2	17.6	14.9	2.65	18.2	14.6	3.60
Michael Ruffin	25	23	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	14	-24	14.7	17.3	-2.54	16.1	17.0	-0.87

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	41	40	0.46	-0.96	1.43	0.05	14	-18	32	16.4	17.1	-0.63	16.2	16.8	-0.65
Ryan Hollins	23	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.03	1	-5	6	16.8	16.8	0.02	14.7	17.3	-2.59
Matt Carroll	35	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-6	8	16.7	16.8	-0.14	15.3	17.6	-2.31
Jeff McInnis	50	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	0	-4	17.0	16.5	0.46	17.7	15.1	2.57
Jason Richardson	75	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	0	-4	16.7	17.4	-0.68	17.2	12.5	4.69
Gerald Wallace	74	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	1	-6	16.9	16.2	0.60	16.5	17.0	-0.55
Raymond Felton	82	82	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.39	-5	1	-6	16.6	19.2	-2.60	16.6	16.0	0.56
Emeka Okafor	50	51	-0.99	0.49	-1.48	-0.43	-19	15	-34	17.1	16.3	0.79	16.6	16.4	0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.78,0.77,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.67,0.63,0.79,0.88,0.83,0.86,0.96,0.77,0.59,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 81, MEM 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.49,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.85,0.64,0.76,0.42,0	91.1%
BOS 90, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.73,0	90.8%
UTA 86, HOU 83	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.26,0	90.8%