NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	93		Excitement	7.0 [390]		MVP	Shawn Marion (PHX): +9.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Comeback	1.9 [166]		LVP	Sebastian Telfair (MIN): -11.4%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	12	62%	0.09	1	-0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Grant Hill	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	13	48%	0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.05	-0.01	14	57%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Raja Bell	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	10	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	14	47%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	12	55%	0.03	4	-0.13	5	40%	-0.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.06	-0.03	11	42%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	26	53%	0.15	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.01
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	11	70%	0.22	6	-0.19	5	60%	-0.01
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	7	41%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Craig Smith	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	-0.03	0.04	11	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.04	-0.07	10	27%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.07
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	12	42%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	28.5	16.6	28.2	1.8	33.2	132.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +10.5%

MIN +2.7%

MIN +44.0%

PHX -6.7%

PHX -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIN	NBA	PHX	MIN	NBA
this game	12.7	17.8	15.4	97.9	106.4	105.7
season	13.8	15.9		111.1	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.6		109.6	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.9	13.6	13.1	11.3	12.7
MIN	18.4	17.1	16.3	19.2	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	32	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-10	13	14.3	11.9	2.41	17.3	18.0	-0.62
Steve Nash	79	80	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.23	4	-11	15	11.8	17.3	-5.49	17.7	18.3	-0.62
Shawn Marion	74	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-7	7	12.0	15.5	-3.56	17.7	18.1	-0.37
Boris Diaw	29	26	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	1	-9	15.0	11.8	3.24	20.0	16.9	3.10
Amar'e Stoudemire	69	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-2	-3	12.0	14.7	-2.68	17.0	20.2	-3.17
Grant Hill	76	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	2	-11	12.6	13.3	-0.64	17.3	19.4	-2.02
Leandro Barbosa	52	50	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	0	-7	14.4	10.7	3.74	19.2	16.1	3.13
Raja Bell	64	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.23	-13	6	-19	12.5	13.2	-0.61	17.4	18.4	-1.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Jefferson	84	84	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.28	13	-6	19	17.3	21.6	-4.30	12.6	14.0	-1.42
Sebastian Telfair	77	77	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	2	3	17.8	17.7	0.06	12.1	15.6	-3.53
Corey Brewer	60	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	-2	11	17.9	17.5	0.45	12.2	13.9	-1.75
Ryan Gomes	35	35	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	0	7	17.4	18.0	-0.61	14.8	11.6	3.20
Chris Richard	18	18	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	2	3	18.9	17.5	1.47	13.8	12.5	1.34
Marko Jaric	81	81	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.22	2	5	-3	17.7	18.3	-0.64	12.3	15.6	-3.31
Rashad McCants	41	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	5	-3	18.7	17.0	1.65	15.2	10.7	4.46
Craig Smith	74	74	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.20	-8	15	-23	17.6	18.3	-0.69	12.0	15.3	-3.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.68,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 85, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.98,1,1	93.5%
MIN 77, SAS 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.69,0.65,0.78,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	93.1%
ORL 112, SAS 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.91,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	93.0%