NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	6.3 [530]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +24.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Comeback	14.3 [243]		LVP	Michael Finley (SAS): -20.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.22	0.07	0.05	16	91%	0.33	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	7	62%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brent Barry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.00	5	80%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.02	11	65%	0.16	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.03
Matt Bonner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	13	53%	0.09	3	-0.12	6	83%	0.04
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	11	9%	-0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	-0.01	-0.03	8	59%	0.10	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.01	9	64%	0.11	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Marko Jaric	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	21	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	70%	0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	12	63%	0.06	3	-0.12	3	67%	-0.04
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	23%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	28%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	27.5	15.7	28.0	2.7	28.3	129.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.1%

SAS +12.4%

MIN -5.9%

SAS +14.1%

MIN -9.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	15.8	16.7	15.4	119.1	103.4	105.7
season	16.5	15.9		104.7	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.3		109.6	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	15.4	17.1	15.8	15.8
MIN	17.7	15.9	14.8	18.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	62	65	0.99	-0.49	1.49	-0.03	35	-20	55	14.4	19.2	-4.80	16.3	17.9	-1.58
Bruce Bowen	67	65	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.11	19	-4	23	15.9	15.7	0.21	17.1	15.6	1.48
Brent Barry	40	39	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.14	16	-1	17	16.0	15.7	0.24	16.0	17.3	-1.27
Tim Duncan	73	74	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	4	7	15.7	16.6	-0.88	16.8	16.3	0.50
Matt Bonner	10	10	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.11	10	5	5	14.4	16.0	-1.63	16.3	16.8	-0.46
Michael Finley	42	40	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	15	-15	16.7	15.1	1.61	17.7	15.9	1.82
Jacque Vaughn	15	12	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.08	4	11	-7	17.0	15.6	1.39	16.9	16.7	0.25
Tony Parker	65	67	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	18	-21	16.1	15.2	0.81	16.6	17.0	-0.39
Ime Udoka	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	13	-11	21.5	15.7	5.79	22.0	16.6	5.36
Francisco Elson	27	26	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.03	-4	19	-23	15.9	15.8	0.12	15.5	17.2	-1.76
Fabricio Oberto	42	41	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.05	-15	30	-45	16.5	15.3	1.20	17.1	16.3	0.83

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Madsen	21	21	0.35	-0.85	1.20	-0.00	12	-27	39	18.7	16.1	2.64	17.5	15.3	2.14
Marko Jaric	22	22	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-17	19	17.7	16.4	1.30	15.0	16.1	-1.06
Gerald Green	25	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.09	-5	-10	5	15.0	17.4	-2.38	16.0	15.8	0.22
Al Jefferson	71	71	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.04	-2	-13	11	16.8	16.4	0.36	16.0	15.4	0.57
Ryan Gomes	60	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-9	3	16.7	16.7	0.04	16.4	14.6	1.74
Sebastian Telfair	71	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.16	-4	-11	7	16.9	16.0	0.87	16.3	13.9	2.38
Craig Smith	39	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-6	-3	15.2	17.9	-2.78	15.3	16.3	-1.03
Greg Buckner	30	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	-4	-7	18.3	15.9	2.47	15.7	15.9	-0.24
Corey Brewer	56	55	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.11	-21	6	-27	16.0	18.0	-1.99	15.0	17.3	-2.30
Antoine Walker	45	46	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.06	-31	16	-47	17.0	16.4	0.60	15.4	16.3	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.74,0.62,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.17,0.04,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 112, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0	94.1%
SAS 92, BOS 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.78,0.66,0.48,0.61,0.53,0.41,0.24,0.13,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.8%
CLE 101, MIN 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.08,0.06,0,0	92.1%