NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	110		Excitement	5.8 [622]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +20.8%
San Antonio Spurs	128		Comeback	2.4 [671]		LVP	Ime Udoka (SAS): -3.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.05	0.07	19	68%	0.19	2	-0.03	12	50%	-0.07
Keith Bogans	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.00	7	86%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	18	60%	0.12	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	11	62%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	54%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	10	60%	0.15	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.09	0.02	17	61%	0.23	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.19	0.09	0.09	22	64%	0.20	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.11	-0.00	14	59%	0.21	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.20	0.01	0.06	8	119%	0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.01	7	57%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	13	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	27.1	15.8	27.0	2.7	31.2	131.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +1.5%

SAS +4.0%

SAS +16.1%

SAS +26.6%

SAS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.5	15.7	15.4	114.6	134.7	105.7
season	15.1	16.5		109.9	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.6		100.5	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	11.1	15.0	16.6	15.9	14.5
SAS	15.5	15.7	15.4	16.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	52	53	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.22	8	-26	34	13.2	16.0	-2.73	15.3	16.1	-0.73
Jameer Nelson	61	63	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.10	-5	-13	8	14.3	14.8	-0.52	15.3	16.3	-0.98
Hedo Turkoglu	84	83	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-15	12	14.2	16.4	-2.19	15.8	14.7	1.14
Dwight Howard	81	82	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	-11	4	14.0	16.9	-2.88	16.0	13.8	2.11
JJ Redick	10	9	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-6	-6	15.3	14.4	0.89	14.8	15.8	-0.98
Adonal Foyle	15	13	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-7	-4	16.9	14.0	2.88	13.8	16.0	-2.11
Keyon Dooling	30	29	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.27	-24	6	-30	14.5	14.5	-0.00	16.8	15.2	1.58
Carlos Arroyo	35	32	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	-5	-8	14.8	14.3	0.52	16.3	15.3	0.98
Rashard Lewis	89	89	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	-3	-12	14.9	10.0	4.85	15.5	17.7	-2.14

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	55	56	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.14	25	-7	32	16.0	15.2	0.80	15.0	13.8	1.16
Tim Duncan	71	70	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.02	19	-1	20	15.6	15.8	-0.23	15.2	12.5	2.69
Manu Ginobili	69	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	1	16	15.4	16.4	-0.99	14.9	13.2	1.78
Jacque Vaughn	18	19	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	7	4	15.8	15.6	0.21	16.2	14.1	2.07
Ime Udoka	14	15	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.14	13	5	8	16.5	15.5	0.98	14.4	14.5	-0.12
Tony Parker	77	77	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.00	7	11	-4	15.6	15.8	-0.21	14.1	16.2	-2.07
Michael Finley	71	71	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	14	-10	15.5	16.2	-0.67	14.3	15.2	-0.89
Bruce Bowen	61	60	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.26	-5	23	-28	15.7	15.6	0.03	14.5	14.4	0.13
Francisco Elson	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	17	-16	19.7	15.5	4.13	14.7	14.5	0.17
Fabricio Oberto	36	37	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	20	-22	15.4	15.8	-0.35	11.9	16.1	-4.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 95, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
MEM 104, IND 114	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.88,0.96,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	93.3%
NOP 83, DAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,1	93.1%