NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	82		Excitement	4.4 [915]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +20.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	91		Comeback	1.4 [253]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -13.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	15	51%	0.02	1	-0.00	9	100%	0.04
Jose Juan Barea	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	7	64%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Fazekas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Ager	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	13	38%	-0.07	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	0.05	14	50%	-0.02	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
DeSagana Diop	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	9	25%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.25	0.02	0.06	17	78%	0.23	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	16	51%	0.05	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.02	-0.04	9	43%	0.05	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.03	6	25%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.03	6	47%	0.06	4	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	29.1	14.8	29.0	2.7	27.3	131.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +67.5%

DAL -6.0%

DAL -8.5%

DAL -1.3%

DAL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	16.6	14.9	15.4	89.1	100.0	105.7
season	16.1	16.7		108.9	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.4		106.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.8	17.3	17.8	14.3	16.6
POR	13.8	12.7	14.1	19.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Fazekas	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-14	19	12.0	16.7	-4.74	22.0	14.6	7.36
Maurice Ager	16	18	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.18	5	-14	19	15.9	16.7	-0.86	15.5	14.7	0.77
Josh Howard	65	65	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-10	11	17.5	14.4	3.14	15.4	13.6	1.77
Jose Juan Barea	42	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-11	13	16.5	16.7	-0.16	14.9	14.9	0.04
Juwan Howard	19	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-7	5	18.6	16.1	2.51	13.5	15.3	-1.70
DeSagana Diop	42	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-3	-3	18.0	15.4	2.69	14.0	15.6	-1.59
Brandon Bass	50	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-8	7	14.6	19.0	-4.44	15.6	14.1	1.49
Trenton Hassell	39	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-5	1	16.2	16.9	-0.71	14.1	15.5	-1.47
Jason Terry	62	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.10	-11	2	-13	15.6	18.6	-2.99	14.6	15.5	-0.88
Jerry Stackhouse	51	47	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.04	-18	9	-27	16.6	16.5	0.13	14.9	14.9	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	71	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.05	-16	7	-23	17.2	14.5	2.74	15.1	14.3	0.74

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	75	75	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.20	13	-4	17	15.2	13.3	1.90	16.2	18.1	-1.88
LaMarcus Aldridge	65	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	4	1	15.6	13.2	2.42	17.8	14.0	3.78
Brandon Roy	77	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	4	1	15.3	12.5	2.81	17.5	12.1	5.48
Jarrett Jack	56	59	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	4	1	15.1	14.6	0.50	15.4	18.6	-3.20
Joel Przybilla	37	39	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	3	3	13.2	16.0	-2.80	14.7	17.9	-3.20
Travis Outlaw	54	56	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.16	2	7	-5	15.7	13.7	1.94	15.2	18.7	-3.55
Martell Webster	50	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	7	-5	14.4	15.5	-1.06	17.7	15.2	2.53
Channing Frye	29	28	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.02	5	4	1	14.0	15.3	-1.24	19.5	15.3	4.19
Sergio Rodriguez	12	14	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	7	-5	11.0	15.5	-4.47	13.5	17.1	-3.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 108, MIL 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
ATL 84, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.94,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
LAL 81, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%