NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	84		Excitement	4.0 [992]		MVP	Caron Butler (MIA): +15.0%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	1.1 [854]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -12.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ira Newble	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alan Henderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	71%	0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Mike Wilks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.09	-0.00	0.09	11	76%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	60%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	17	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dion Glover	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	21%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.15	-0.01	-0.05	9	39%	-0.04	5	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.02	13	46%	-0.06	2	-0.06	9	89%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	11	75%	0.15	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Travis Best	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.04	14	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	7	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	17	49%	0.02	0	0.00	13	92%	0.06
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	7	57%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	30.3	15.4	27.2	2.0	29.2	131.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.4%

MIA +5.9%

ATL -4.8%

MIA +9.6%

MIA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	16.9	15.5	97.7	108.1	101.6
season	15.1	16.3		99.5	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.7		100.7	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.1	16.5	16.7	15.8	16.5
MIA	16.4	15.5	16.8	19.2	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	22	22	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.12	8	-17	25	14.3	17.3	-2.99	17.5	16.7	0.75
Alan Henderson	25	24	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-12	15	17.8	16.0	1.82	14.7	17.8	-3.16
Dion Glover	20	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-5	1	18.6	15.9	2.74	15.1	17.4	-2.32
Jason Terry	55	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-8	7	16.0	17.5	-1.57	16.3	18.0	-1.73
Ira Newble	47	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-8	7	17.9	14.9	2.92	17.9	15.7	2.25
Glenn Robinson	69	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	-3	-3	15.9	19.2	-3.28	17.0	16.8	0.16
Theo Ratliff	61	62	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	3	-15	16.0	17.8	-1.82	17.8	14.7	3.16
Mike Wilks	58	59	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.09	-17	8	-25	16.1	17.4	-1.25	17.0	16.8	0.19
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	73	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.17	-15	6	-21	17.2	13.2	4.00	17.0	16.8	0.20

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	79	79	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-7	23	16.7	19.3	-2.55	16.6	16.3	0.28
Brian Grant	67	67	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	-2	13	17.4	15.4	2.02	17.3	13.8	3.54
Travis Best	59	59	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-1	11	17.8	15.1	2.61	16.1	17.6	-1.47
Caron Butler	68	68	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.25	7	2	5	17.6	14.4	3.16	17.0	14.8	2.24
Malik Allen	67	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	1	7	17.0	16.6	0.40	15.5	20.2	-4.64
Mike James	37	37	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	8	-7	15.6	18.0	-2.36	16.6	16.5	0.04
Anthony Carter	11	11	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	5	-1	14.5	17.3	-2.85	17.1	16.5	0.62
Vladimir Stepania	34	34	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	10	-11	15.6	17.8	-2.14	17.0	16.3	0.70
Rasual Butler	8	8	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	20	-31	18.0	16.8	1.17	15.1	16.7	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.94,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 82, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
NJN 97, CHH 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
HOU 108, MIL 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%