NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	116		Excitement	4.0 [980]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +15.3%
Orlando Magic	92		Comeback	1.7 [423]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -8.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.02	-0.02	10	72%	0.16	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.00	10	73%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	2	69%	0.07	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.02
Ronald Murray	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	14	59%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	61%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	9	71%	0.09	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	3	80%	0.08	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	11	55%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.01	-0.00	4	140%	0.16	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.01	11	66%	0.13	3	-0.07	10	100%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	-0.00	-0.03	4	64%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Augustine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	15	49%	0.04	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.03
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	15	41%	-0.04	2	-0.05	9	44%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.8	30.3	16.6	29.1	2.5	31.5	137.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.5%

DET +12.6%

DET +5.9%

ORL -3.1%

DET +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.9	15.4	127.5	102.2	105.7
season	16.8	15.1		108.8	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.8		104.6	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.2	13.8	17.0	17.2	16.0
ORL	13.8	16.2	16.5	17.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	47	47	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.11	19	5	14	14.5	17.5	-2.97	15.8	16.0	-0.19
Tayshaun Prince	65	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.28	23	1	22	16.4	15.0	1.35	15.2	17.8	-2.64
Chauncey Billups	59	58	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	13	-2	15.8	16.2	-0.34	15.6	16.3	-0.76
Rasheed Wallace	59	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	10	4	16.6	14.8	1.78	15.2	17.0	-1.76
Arron Afflalo	49	49	0.28	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	15	-6	16.1	15.9	0.20	15.7	16.1	-0.44
Ronald Murray	52	50	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.20	16	8	8	15.7	16.3	-0.51	16.5	15.0	1.45
Jarvis Hayes	43	42	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.12	11	13	-2	16.0	16.0	-0.03	16.1	15.6	0.49
Antonio McDyess	52	53	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.16	10	14	-4	17.0	14.6	2.41	14.9	17.2	-2.22
Nazr Mohammed	15	15	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.07	5	19	-14	14.6	16.2	-1.64	20.2	15.0	5.21
Ronald Dupree	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	22	-20	13.8	16.1	-2.29	21.6	15.5	6.08
Amir Johnson	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	24	-24	15.7	16.0	-0.33	18.9	15.6	3.31

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	8	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-24	24	18.9	15.6	3.31	15.7	16.0	-0.33
James Augustine	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-22	20	21.8	15.4	6.40	14.8	16.0	-1.21
Trevor Ariza	15	17	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-22	20	19.1	15.2	3.85	16.4	15.9	0.47
Pat Garrity	22	22	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	-16	8	17.6	15.3	2.30	15.5	16.1	-0.56
Jameer Nelson	54	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-15	6	14.4	18.0	-3.53	16.0	15.9	0.17
Adonal Foyle	19	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.16	-13	-11	-2	18.9	15.0	3.92	14.8	16.3	-1.57
Keith Bogans	63	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.17	-14	-10	-4	15.0	17.8	-2.80	16.6	14.8	1.79
Keyon Dooling	28	31	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-13	2	18.1	14.8	3.27	14.8	16.5	-1.71
Carlos Arroyo	27	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	-10	-4	17.4	15.2	2.22	15.9	16.0	-0.11
Dwight Howard	73	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.06	-13	-11	-2	14.9	19.8	-4.89	16.3	14.8	1.49
Rashard Lewis	67	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	-8	-8	14.8	18.9	-4.11	16.2	15.3	0.86
Hedo Turkoglu	68	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.13	-18	-6	-12	15.2	17.8	-2.60	15.9	16.1	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.12,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 104, SAS 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
UTA 120, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.68,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
DET 91, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0	95.7%