NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	8.3 [222]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): +27.5%
Washington Wizards	89		Comeback	2.1 [669]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (WAS): -40.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.24	0.09	0.14	-0.00	16	67%	0.37	3	-0.13	7	100%	0.07
Carlos Arroyo	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.11	0.00	3	67%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	65%	0.08	3	-0.05	6	83%	-0.02
Keith Bogans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	47%	0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Trevor Ariza	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	11	61%	0.07	6	-0.14	6	50%	-0.05
Jameer Nelson	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.28	0.28	0.28	-0.01	-0.00	26	63%	0.28	0	0.00	24	62%	-0.03
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	12	58%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	40%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Donell Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	0.00	4	17%	-0.11	2	-0.07	4	0%	-0.11
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	10	9%	-0.21	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.21,-0.4,-0.4	-0.40	-0.17	-0.24	-0.01	14	26%	-0.33	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	31.4	15.4	30.2	2.0	42.0	150.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +80.4%

ORL +18.3%

WAS -27.0%

WAS -21.4%

WAS -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	17.1	15.4	109.2	97.8	104.5
season	15.9	14.8		103.4	107.8
opponent	15.3	15.7		108.7	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.2	15.5	15.0	15.1	15.2
WAS	16.1	16.4	17.6	18.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	22	22	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	-2	10	15.5	15.1	0.39	19.0	16.5	2.55
Keyon Dooling	46	47	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.47	5	1	4	14.9	15.5	-0.58	17.5	16.7	0.83
Dwight Howard	75	78	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-4	14	15.0	16.5	-1.50	17.2	16.7	0.49
Hedo Turkoglu	76	78	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	0	6	15.7	11.9	3.78	16.7	19.4	-2.65
Grant Hill	64	68	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	3	0	15.2	15.3	-0.19	16.6	18.6	-2.01
Keith Bogans	22	21	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	3	0	15.1	15.2	-0.16	19.7	16.3	3.32
Trevor Ariza	31	33	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	3	0	14.8	15.4	-0.62	16.4	17.5	-1.08
Tony Battie	24	28	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	6	-6	15.5	15.1	0.46	17.1	17.1	0.05
Darko Milicic	21	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.08	-4	10	-14	14.7	15.4	-0.71	16.9	17.2	-0.27
JJ Redick	12	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	9	-12	15.8	15.1	0.73	18.2	16.9	1.22
Jameer Nelson	42	46	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.11	-1	7	-8	15.2	15.2	-0.03	16.2	18.1	-1.94

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	53	49	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.02	2	-8	10	16.5	18.0	-1.53	15.6	14.7	0.88
Donell Taylor	17	15	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-8	10	19.8	16.5	3.34	16.8	14.9	1.92
Antonio Daniels	61	60	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-15	24	17.2	17.0	0.21	15.1	15.5	-0.40
Andray Blatche	21	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-3	0	18.3	16.8	1.53	15.5	15.1	0.43
Jarvis Hayes	80	75	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-8	10	16.8	19.1	-2.25	15.4	14.2	1.21
Brendan Haywood	32	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	4	-14	17.9	16.7	1.28	15.6	15.0	0.66
Antawn Jamison	91	87	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	17.1	0.0	17.11	15.2	0.0	15.21
Darius Songaila	24	21	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.24	-13	7	-20	17.5	17.0	0.47	12.6	16.0	-3.47
DeShawn Stevenson	76	73	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.37	-13	7	-20	16.4	20.7	-4.34	15.0	16.1	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.21,0.33,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 69, OKC 65	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.38,0.36,0.24,0.1,0	92.8%
LAL 92, SAC 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.27,0.18,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.26,0.27,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.38,0.25,0.23,0.36,0.35,0.18,0.11,0.21,0.23,0.42,0	91.7%
UTA 102, OKC 95	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.5,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.45,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.15,0.08,0	91.2%