NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	89		Excitement	6.9 [461]		MVP	Luke Jackson (TOR): +21.3%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	1.0 [1036]		LVP	T.J. Ford (TOR): -38.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Jackson	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21	0.09	0.12	-0.00	6	83%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.01	17	53%	0.13	0	0.00	11	91%	0.06
Joey Graham	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	3	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kris Humphries	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Uros Slokar	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.02	10	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Juan Dixon	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	12	42%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	6	38%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Anthony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	12	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.39	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.39	-0.20	-0.20	-0.00	13	15%	-0.31	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	12	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.07	0.02	12	53%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	0%	-0.09
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	10	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	56%	0.10	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.01	0.01	-0.11	0.10	-0.01	9	27%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.09
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	11	64%	0.02	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	30.0	16.0	22.5	1.8	34.4	130.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +72.2%

TOR -10.2%

MIA +7.4%

TOR -21.4%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	15.5	15.4	101.1	102.2	104.5
season	15.2	16.0		104.7	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.4		104.3	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.5	16.4	15.4	17.5	16.9
MIA	15.0	13.6	15.9	17.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	51	51	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-6	9	17.2	16.5	0.73	16.4	14.3	2.09
Joey Graham	14	15	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-3	3	18.6	16.6	2.06	15.5	15.5	0.08
Uros Slokar	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-3	3	0.0	16.9	-16.91	4.0	15.6	-11.60
Jose Calderon	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-4	5	18.2	16.1	2.13	16.3	14.9	1.38
Kris Humphries	35	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	1	-5	17.0	16.9	0.10	15.4	15.5	-0.08
Juan Dixon	52	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	1	-5	16.7	17.2	-0.58	15.8	15.0	0.85
Luke Jackson	34	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-7	11	17.1	16.8	0.29	15.9	15.2	0.78
T.J. Ford	55	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	1	-5	16.1	18.2	-2.13	14.9	16.3	-1.38
Chris Bosh	79	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-2	1	16.9	16.7	0.27	15.7	13.9	1.76
Anthony Parker	62	64	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	1	-5	16.4	18.1	-1.71	15.3	15.8	-0.48
Morris Peterson	25	26	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.34	-6	3	-9	16.6	17.0	-0.38	12.5	16.7	-4.12

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	77	76	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.36	7	-4	11	15.0	18.5	-3.50	16.7	17.9	-1.17
Gary Payton	32	30	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.32	6	-3	9	14.4	16.1	-1.65	17.1	16.8	0.29
Udonis Haslem	60	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	0	3	15.0	16.4	-1.35	16.8	17.2	-0.45
Jason Williams	65	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	4	-5	15.1	16.3	-1.18	16.5	17.9	-1.38
Eddie Jones	61	60	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.37	-2	5	-7	16.2	13.8	2.42	16.9	16.9	0.08
Alonzo Mourning	31	28	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	3	-3	16.3	15.0	1.26	17.0	16.9	0.13
Antoine Walker	31	29	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	1	1	16.0	15.2	0.81	17.3	16.7	0.60
Jason Kapono	40	39	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	4	-5	15.8	15.2	0.60	17.1	16.8	0.35
Shaquille O'Neal	53	56	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.06	1	2	-1	15.8	15.0	0.84	17.2	16.4	0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.84,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.87,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.98,1	93.9%
HOU 108, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.92,0.82,0.91,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.94,0.95,1	93.7%
TOR 98, POR 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.8,0.94,0.99,1,1	93.7%