NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	111		Excitement	7.0 [397]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +27.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	116		Comeback	1.2 [1023]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -23.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08	0.05	0.05	0.03	18	62%	0.13	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	8	65%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Robert Pack	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	15	47%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
George McCloud	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07	0.00	-0.05	0.02	5	62%	0.02	1	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.23	-0.15	-0.09	-0.00	21	42%	-0.05	6	-0.19	3	100%	0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.13	0.14	-0.01	16	71%	0.31	1	-0.03	13	100%	0.12
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	13	62%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	8	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.06	0.03	20	52%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	-0.03	19	57%	0.05	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Scott Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	25.3	15.0	25.2	1.6	37.3	131.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +27.9%

MIL +5.8%

DEN -13.7%

MIL +29.1%

MIL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	13.7	15.5	113.3	120.8	100.9
season	15.2	14.9		101.4	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.2		102.3	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.6	17.3	13.4	15.5	16.0
MIL	10.5	14.6	14.8	15.1	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	41	40	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-5	5	16.0	16.0	-0.01	11.7	15.1	-3.40
Robert Pack	20	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-1	-3	17.8	15.5	2.31	15.2	13.3	1.95
Kevin Willis	33	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-2	-1	16.2	15.8	0.38	16.8	12.1	4.78
Ryan Bowen	35	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	3	-11	16.8	15.5	1.26	15.3	12.8	2.53
George McCloud	40	40	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-5	5	14.1	17.3	-3.18	15.1	12.7	2.34
Raef LaFrentz	73	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-8	11	16.3	15.0	1.29	13.1	15.5	-2.33
Voshon Lenard	73	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.33	-1	-4	3	15.7	16.8	-1.18	13.2	15.2	-2.07
Nick Van Exel	86	83	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-1	-3	16.2	14.5	1.66	13.3	16.5	-3.27
Antonio McDyess	89	86	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.28	-8	3	-11	15.8	17.9	-2.12	13.1	18.6	-5.46

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	81	83	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	-5	15	12.4	21.0	-8.64	16.1	14.9	1.21
Tim Thomas	63	63	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.21	12	-7	19	14.4	12.3	2.14	16.3	15.4	0.91
Ervin Johnson	55	56	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.44	4	1	3	15.1	11.8	3.28	16.5	15.3	1.22
Sam Cassell	74	74	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	1	3	13.4	14.7	-1.26	16.0	15.8	0.22
Glenn Robinson	74	75	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.38	-5	10	-15	14.3	11.9	2.39	15.1	18.7	-3.63
Lindsey Hunter	43	45	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.20	-2	7	-9	15.8	12.0	3.81	14.5	17.2	-2.76
Scott Williams	50	50	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.01	2	3	-1	12.9	14.5	-1.60	17.7	14.1	3.59
Joel Przybilla	0	2	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	5	-5	0.0	13.7	-13.71	10.0	16.1	-6.08
Mark Pope	40	42	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	5	-5	11.6	15.2	-3.66	15.6	16.2	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.87,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 96, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.76,0.88,0.78,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	94.0%
MEM 103, BOS 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.95,0.91,0.99,1	94.0%
TOR 89, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.84,0.91,0.96,1	93.9%