NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	94		Excitement	5.5 [741]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +21.1%
Boston Celtics	78		Comeback	1.4 [945]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -19.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.10	0.03	16	72%	0.28	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.05	-0.01	6	59%	0.10	1	-0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Ben Gordon	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	14	72%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	11	71%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	33%	0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	10	31%	-0.03	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.07
P.J. Brown	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	8	20%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.00	5	79%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Allan Ray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	14	47%	0.03	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	14	24%	-0.15	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.06	0.00	15	32%	-0.15	2	-0.05	7	29%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	27.2	16.8	25.2	2.4	30.3	132.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +55.4%

BOS -8.8%

BOS -8.6%

CHI +13.1%

BOS -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	17.2	15.4	102.2	86.7	104.5
season	14.5	15.5		103.1	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.9		105.2	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	12.6	14.4	14.4	16.9	14.5
BOS	18.1	15.6	16.9	18.3	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	77	75	0.71	-0.21	0.93	-0.05	26	-10	36	14.2	15.9	-1.71	18.2	11.9	6.29
Kirk Hinrich	80	80	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.00	20	-4	24	14.9	12.1	2.78	17.6	13.5	4.14
Tyrus Thomas	37	35	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.07	14	2	12	12.3	16.0	-3.64	17.6	16.9	0.74
Luol Deng	69	69	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.06	16	0	16	15.1	12.8	2.23	18.0	14.5	3.46
Chris Duhon	32	31	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	7	2	12.7	15.4	-2.73	17.1	17.2	-0.07
Adrian Griffin	40	38	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	6	4	14.6	14.4	0.22	16.6	17.6	-1.04
Ben Gordon	68	67	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	13	-10	14.9	13.4	1.47	16.7	18.6	-1.86
Thabo Sefolosha	3	2	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	16	-16	14.3	14.5	-0.17	15.5	17.2	-1.72
Andre Barrett	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	17.0	14.5	2.53	0.0	17.2	-17.18
Michael Sweetney	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	16	-16	21.0	14.4	6.64	15.5	17.2	-1.72
Viktor Khryapa	11	10	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.06	-8	24	-32	17.0	14.2	2.84	10.8	18.0	-7.18
P.J. Brown	40	41	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.02	-10	26	-36	14.9	14.2	0.80	15.7	18.4	-2.70

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allan Ray	25	25	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.04	8	-24	32	15.7	17.8	-2.07	15.4	14.1	1.29
Kendrick Perkins	40	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.09	-7	-9	2	16.9	17.4	-0.50	14.2	14.8	-0.59
Al Jefferson	54	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.13	-10	-6	-4	17.9	16.1	1.82	14.8	14.1	0.73
Gerald Green	59	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-5	-6	17.7	16.3	1.40	14.8	14.0	0.80
Leon Powe	35	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-12	8	16.5	17.6	-1.13	14.8	14.3	0.51
Brian Scalabrine	40	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-10	4	17.2	17.1	0.08	14.2	14.7	-0.45
Rajon Rondo	88	91	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-2	-12	17.3	11.5	5.81	14.5	16.0	-1.52
Sebastian Telfair	45	47	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.00	-16	0	-16	16.5	17.9	-1.38	14.5	14.5	-0.02
Paul Pierce	64	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.02	-20	4	-24	17.5	16.3	1.22	13.9	16.2	-2.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 114, PHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
LAL 89, CLE 76	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.26,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	93.9%
MIL 98, LAL 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.9%