NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	80		Excitement	8.8 [153]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +22.0%
Houston Rockets	77		Comeback	3.6 [415]		LVP	Luther Head (HOU): -45.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.19	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.06	0.14	0.01	22	59%	0.25	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Austin Croshere	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.05	-0.02	14	50%	0.07	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.04
Jason Terry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.01,-0.04	-0.09	0.06	0.00	10	37%	0.06	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.07
Greg Buckner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Josh Howard	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.01	-0.14	0.01	13	50%	-0.03	2	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0,0.11,0.05,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.04	0.19	0.01	21	51%	0.28	2	-0.06	11	55%	-0.12
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.03	-0.01	3	85%	0.14	1	-0.01	7	86%	-0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	6	53%	-0.02	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.09	-0.02	13	44%	-0.06	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.05
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.11	-0.17	0.01	10	32%	-0.15	3	-0.14	2	0%	-0.04
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.46	-0.46	-0.11	-0.35	-0.00	10	27%	-0.41	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.3	34.3	20.0	30.1	3.4	40.3	155.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +42.1%

DAL +1.6%

DAL +19.8%

HOU -20.5%

DAL +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	16.2	16.0	15.4	87.9	87.5	104.5
season	16.3	15.6		108.7	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.2		99.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	18.9	14.8	14.1	17.4	16.2
HOU	15.4	15.9	18.8	13.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	46	45	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.45	13	-10	23	16.3	16.1	0.21	17.0	14.8	2.19
Dirk Nowitzki	77	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.39	8	-5	13	16.3	15.8	0.51	16.3	14.4	1.90
Jason Terry	66	68	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	-3	9	16.4	15.7	0.74	15.6	17.1	-1.48
Josh Howard	81	78	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.43	3	0	3	16.7	12.6	4.07	16.0	15.6	0.40
Jerry Stackhouse	60	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.49	-4	7	-11	15.9	16.9	-0.99	15.8	16.3	-0.57
Devin Harris	31	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	7	-11	15.2	16.7	-1.51	16.7	15.6	1.08
Greg Buckner	50	51	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.13	2	1	1	16.2	16.3	-0.13	14.9	17.4	-2.46
Austin Croshere	10	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	7	-11	16.1	16.2	-0.13	14.3	16.2	-1.87
DeSagana Diop	34	30	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.04	-5	8	-13	16.1	16.3	-0.26	16.3	15.8	0.47

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	37	37	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-7	11	14.6	17.0	-2.39	17.2	15.6	1.63
Bonzi Wells	43	45	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-7	11	14.8	17.1	-2.32	16.4	16.0	0.36
Dikembe Mutombo	49	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	2	-7	17.0	14.7	2.31	15.8	16.7	-0.92
Tracy McGrady	73	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	2	-7	15.7	17.1	-1.42	16.4	15.5	0.90
Luther Head	40	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-5	7	15.9	16.0	-0.15	14.7	17.5	-2.75
Rafer Alston	66	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	16.3	14.9	1.45	16.5	15.4	1.15
Juwan Howard	61	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	2	-7	16.3	15.1	1.22	16.3	16.1	0.11
Shane Battier	71	73	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.48	-8	5	-13	16.3	14.4	1.91	16.3	15.9	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.46,0.46,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.29,0.54,0.36,0.72,0.68,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 93, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.72,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.67,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.29,0.4,0.53,0.71,0.77,0.63,0	91.4%
PHI 84, MIN 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.63,0.68,0.26,0	90.6%
HOU 97, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.54,0.61,0.84,0.78,0.58,0	90.3%