NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	111		Excitement	6.3 [562]		MVP	Earl Boykins (MIL): +21.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	116		Comeback	1.2 [763]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -13.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.17	0.04	0.00	8	95%	0.23	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Carlos Arroyo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	7	78%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.05	0.03	9	84%	0.21	4	-0.17	7	43%	-0.07
Hedo Turkoglu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	16	50%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	1	62%	0.03	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.01
JJ Redick	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.03	0.04	7	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Darko Milicic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	11	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	29%	-0.06	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.08	-0.01	9	80%	0.27	3	-0.05	12	83%	0.04
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	11	83%	0.22	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.10	0.02	16	66%	0.26	4	-0.10	9	44%	-0.09
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	-0.02	0.04	15	59%	0.05	0	0.00	7	71%	0.02
Lynn Greer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	14	38%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.7	34.1	15.7	35.3	2.7	45.3	159.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +16.7%

ORL -4.2%

MIL +8.5%

MIL +27.2%

MIL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.7	15.4	112.1	117.2	104.5
season	15.9	15.2		103.4	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		109.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	19.7	14.4	12.7	11.9	14.4
MIL	14.6	15.6	16.1	12.9	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	38	39	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.20	8	-13	21	12.6	15.5	-2.94	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Tony Battie	48	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-1	-3	16.2	12.6	3.58	15.4	14.2	1.20
Carlos Arroyo	66	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-1	-3	13.8	15.6	-1.82	14.8	14.5	0.30
Keith Bogans	62	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	4	-13	15.3	12.9	2.39	15.7	13.2	2.42
Dwight Howard	70	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-4	3	14.3	14.5	-0.17	14.8	14.5	0.32
Jameer Nelson	50	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-3	1	14.5	14.2	0.32	15.0	14.4	0.60
Darko Milicic	45	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	2	-9	14.2	14.5	-0.26	14.3	15.1	-0.87
Hedo Turkoglu	78	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.33	-1	-4	3	14.7	13.2	1.49	14.6	15.3	-0.75
JJ Redick	38	40	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	0	-5	12.8	15.3	-2.47	13.3	15.7	-2.35

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	66	66	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.38	3	2	1	14.0	16.1	-2.05	13.1	16.8	-3.73
Charlie Villanueva	84	82	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.24	7	-2	9	15.0	13.3	1.72	14.5	13.5	1.08
Ruben Patterson	76	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-6	17	14.6	15.0	-0.41	14.3	14.5	-0.12
Mo Williams	80	81	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	-2	9	15.1	13.3	1.81	14.5	13.9	0.58
Andrew Bogut	59	59	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	1	3	13.2	16.9	-3.73	15.1	13.2	1.87
Ersan Ilyasova	30	32	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.39	-5	10	-15	13.7	15.2	-1.43	13.2	14.9	-1.69
Brian Skinner	42	41	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	7	-9	16.5	13.4	3.08	14.1	14.6	-0.45
Charlie Bell	56	55	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.05	4	1	3	16.0	13.0	2.97	15.8	12.6	3.23
David Noel	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	5	-5	0.0	14.7	-14.73	4.0	14.5	-10.47
Lynn Greer	2	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	9	-13	2.0	15.0	-12.99	9.0	14.4	-5.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.89,0.94,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 73, POR 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.78,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%
WAS 80, LAL 91	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,1,1,1	93.8%
GSW 83, BOS 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.68,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.89,0.95,0.91,1	93.6%