NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	2.7 [1232]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): +13.9%
Detroit Pistons	109		Comeback	1.2 [1236]		LVP	Sebastian Telfair (BOS): -5.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	0.00	0.06	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	16	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.07	8	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	90%	0.06	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	5	80%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Allan Ray	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	-0.01	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Delonte West	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	11	42%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Rajon Rondo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.04	6	53%	-0.02	2	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.01	0.07	11	52%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	0.01	0.03	10	90%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.20	0.00	0.07	12	80%	0.13	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.02	12	65%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.00	0.03	9	71%	0.08	2	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.00	-0.06	9	56%	0.06	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	10	48%	0.03	3	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	20%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	57%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	24.3	16.5	23.7	1.8	31.2	124.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +41.1%

DET +7.4%

BOS -0.7%

DET +2.4%

BOS -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	18.5	15.4	122.9	131.3	104.5
season	15.5	16.8		101.7	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.7	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.9	20.4	15.9	11.3	16.2
DET	18.1	16.6	16.8	22.5	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allan Ray	4	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-12	17	7.0	16.6	-9.65	24.0	18.3	5.69
Leon Powe	4	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-12	17	7.0	16.6	-9.65	24.0	18.3	5.69
Al Jefferson	51	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.34	6	-13	19	16.0	16.5	-0.57	20.5	15.1	5.41
Rajon Rondo	53	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-13	19	16.5	15.7	0.75	21.2	13.5	7.69
Sebastian Telfair	42	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.33	4	-11	15	14.8	17.6	-2.87	19.7	17.4	2.33
Gerald Green	39	39	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-9	11	13.5	18.5	-4.98	18.1	18.9	-0.83
Brian Scalabrine	46	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.13	-15	8	-23	17.3	14.8	2.52	17.1	20.2	-3.11
Wally Szczerbiak	42	41	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	4	-15	15.7	16.7	-1.04	15.4	21.6	-6.18
Kendrick Perkins	40	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.04	-10	3	-13	16.3	16.0	0.28	16.6	20.2	-3.64
Delonte West	53	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	5	-17	18.2	12.6	5.61	17.6	20.2	-2.60
Ryan Gomes	41	43	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	0.08	-15	8	-23	18.4	14.0	4.32	18.6	18.4	0.18

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	64	64	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.01	17	-10	27	18.3	19.3	-0.97	16.3	15.7	0.58
Chris Webber	59	59	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.15	18	-11	29	17.9	20.1	-2.26	16.7	14.9	1.78
Richard Hamilton	73	74	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	8	-9	18.4	19.7	-1.34	15.9	18.8	-2.91
Tayshaun Prince	51	51	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	-2	11	19.0	17.7	1.30	16.2	16.2	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	39	40	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.10	12	-5	17	18.7	18.4	0.28	17.6	14.9	2.74
Antonio McDyess	38	36	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.22	1	6	-5	16.9	19.9	-2.95	16.1	16.2	-0.07
Carlos Delfino	32	32	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.30	-2	9	-11	17.7	19.0	-1.30	16.2	16.2	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	35	35	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.41	-8	15	-23	20.8	16.8	4.00	15.0	17.0	-1.99
Jason Maxiell	24	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.44	-11	18	-29	20.1	17.9	2.26	14.9	16.7	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 90, MIN 122	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
TOR 91, GSW 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
HOU 94, DEN 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%