NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	91		Excitement	2.5 [1259]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +9.6%
Golden State Warriors	117		Comeback	1.2 [1110]		LVP	Rafael Araujo (TOR): -5.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	-0.00	-0.02	14	68%	0.11	3	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	6	61%	0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	7	29%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	-0.00	0.08	14	64%	0.02	2	-0.02	5	40%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike James	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.14	0.00	-0.09	10	23%	-0.03	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Rafael Araujo	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.00	0.04	18	61%	0.10	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.00	-0.05	4	89%	0.08	2	0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	13	61%	0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	8	75%	0.03	3	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.00	0.08	13	66%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	54%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	2	57%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Aaron Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	33%	0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Taft	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.01	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	7	44%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.3	1.4	26.8	17.0	26.1	2.4	33.7	126.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +28.6%

GSW +2.6%

GSW +11.1%

GSW +7.8%

TOR -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	GSW	NBA	TOR	GSW	NBA
this game	15.6	14.2	15.6	94.8	119.4	104.4
season	15.6	14.8		107.3	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		104.0	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.5	17.6	14.2	15.2	15.6
GSW	12.6	15.9	12.5	16.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrick Martin	20	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-24	22	15.9	15.4	0.50	16.3	13.6	2.77
Matt Bonner	36	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-23	20	15.4	15.6	-0.26	14.9	13.7	1.16
Jalen Rose	29	30	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.11	-10	-16	6	16.8	15.0	1.83	12.1	15.0	-2.91
Rafael Araujo	37	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.27	-17	-9	-8	16.9	14.7	2.14	13.0	14.9	-1.84
Charlie Villanueva	63	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.03	-10	-16	6	15.1	16.3	-1.19	14.5	13.6	0.90
Joey Graham	64	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	-14	2	14.5	17.6	-3.11	15.4	11.7	3.75
Morris Peterson	71	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-17	8	15.0	17.0	-1.96	14.1	14.3	-0.16
Jose Calderon	54	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.30	-21	-5	-16	14.6	16.8	-2.24	14.1	14.3	-0.22
Mike James	47	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.21	-20	-6	-14	17.3	13.9	3.38	13.4	14.9	-1.52
Chris Bosh	59	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.34	-26	0	-26	15.8	15.2	0.55	13.7	14.9	-1.12

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	62	61	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.34	29	-3	32	13.0	16.2	-3.27	16.0	14.7	1.36
Mike Dunleavy	75	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.58	35	-9	44	13.3	17.0	-3.78	15.8	14.8	0.96
Jason Richardson	66	65	0.39	0.12	0.27	-0.26	22	4	18	13.4	15.7	-2.28	17.0	12.6	4.34
Troy Murphy	63	62	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.10	16	10	6	13.8	14.7	-0.92	16.2	14.3	1.95
Derek Fisher	49	50	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	21	-16	16.1	12.2	3.82	15.5	15.6	-0.03
Andris Biedrins	27	27	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	23	-20	16.4	13.3	3.16	14.4	16.0	-1.54
Ike Diogu	42	41	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.09	9	17	-8	15.5	13.1	2.36	14.4	16.4	-1.94
Adonal Foyle	42	41	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.27	15	11	4	11.9	15.9	-4.02	15.7	15.4	0.31
Zarko Cabarkapa	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.17	6	20	-14	14.5	14.1	0.37	15.3	15.6	-0.26
Chris Taft	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.21	7	19	-12	11.6	14.4	-2.75	14.4	15.6	-1.21
Calbert Cheaney	10	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.26	-9	35	-44	17.9	13.7	4.17	12.7	15.9	-3.19
Aaron Miles	31	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.22	-8	34	-42	16.5	13.1	3.46	13.1	16.6	-3.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 76, DAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
GSW 91, DAL 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
HOU 90, MIN 122	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%