NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	93		Excitement	5.9 [651]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +8.4%
Dallas Mavericks	94		Comeback	1.4 [1180]		LVP	Randy Foye (MIN): -21.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Blount	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	10	73%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Reed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Trenton Hassell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	12	52%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.04	0.03	17	60%	0.06	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.02
Rashad McCants	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.08	0.05	-0.13	0.00	15	62%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21	-0.04	-0.12	0.05	10	30%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.01	16	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	14	51%	0.06	0	0.00	7	100%	0.06
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	46%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.08	-0.04	22	45%	0.05	3	-0.14	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	28.6	16.6	28.1	2.4	32.5	135.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +14.6%

DAL +19.1%

DAL +19.3%

MIN -4.5%

DAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.7	16.2	15.4	108.1	105.6	104.5
season	15.4	16.3		101.9	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		102.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.5	16.3	16.4	18.8	16.7
DAL	16.4	15.0	16.3	17.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Reed	1	2	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	1	-3	12.0	16.7	-4.74	21.5	16.1	5.39
Mark Madsen	20	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-3	5	17.7	16.4	1.32	17.0	16.0	1.05
Rashad McCants	7	6	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	2	-5	18.1	16.6	1.59	16.3	16.2	0.10
Kevin Garnett	63	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.48	10	-11	21	17.0	15.9	1.06	17.3	13.0	4.30
Randy Foye	39	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.45	8	-9	17	17.4	16.1	1.23	17.0	15.6	1.40
Craig Smith	17	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	8	-17	15.4	17.0	-1.59	12.5	17.1	-4.55
Mike James	47	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	8	-17	16.1	17.4	-1.23	15.6	17.0	-1.40
Mark Blount	67	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	3	-7	16.7	16.8	-0.13	16.5	15.4	1.06
Marko Jaric	41	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.32	-1	0	-1	17.6	15.8	1.81	15.3	17.0	-1.71
Trenton Hassell	52	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-1	1	16.5	17.0	-0.57	16.8	15.3	1.48
Ricky Davis	76	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.48	3	-4	7	16.1	21.4	-5.33	15.6	21.1	-5.48

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	72	68	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.45	6	-5	11	16.6	14.8	1.82	16.9	15.8	1.08
Dirk Nowitzki	66	65	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	-1	3	15.4	18.6	-3.20	16.6	17.0	-0.42
Greg Buckner	21	21	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	-4	9	11.9	17.6	-5.67	16.6	16.7	-0.09
Jason Terry	70	68	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.28	3	-2	5	16.6	15.1	1.50	16.9	15.7	1.22
Erick Dampier	50	50	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	-6	13	16.8	15.5	1.38	16.5	16.9	-0.44
Devin Harris	41	40	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.23	-1	2	-3	15.5	16.9	-1.43	16.0	17.3	-1.28
Devean George	41	38	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.35	-9	10	-19	16.8	15.8	0.96	16.0	17.2	-1.28
Jerry Stackhouse	40	38	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	2	-3	17.6	15.1	2.52	17.6	16.0	1.60
DeSagana Diop	34	32	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.18	-5	6	-11	17.0	15.8	1.19	17.3	16.3	0.95
Austin Croshere	10	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	3	-5	16.0	16.3	-0.27	15.3	16.9	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.94,0.85,0.75,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.78,0.85,0.71,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 86, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.83,1	93.9%
GSW 95, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.91,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.78,0.78,0.83,1	93.2%
HOU 102, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.85,1	93.0%