NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	102		Excitement	6.1 [605]		MVP	Nick Collison (SEA): +18.2%
Houston Rockets	112		Comeback	1.6 [1131]		LVP	Earl Watson (SEA): -7.6%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.18	0.15	0.03	0.00	19	62%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Damien Wilkins	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.02	0.05	28	62%	0.16	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Johan Petro	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	7	43%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	9	50%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.01	7	86%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	0.05	0.08	23	67%	0.21	3	-0.08	8	75%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	0.00	7	50%	0.10	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	5	100%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.08,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	5	56%	0.07	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.04
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	13	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.7	24.8	15.7	23.3	2.4	33.6	128.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +26.4%

HOU +19.5%

SEA -19.5%

HOU +25.5%

SEA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	HOU	NBA	SEA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.4	14.7	15.4	109.7	121.7	104.5
season	15.4	15.6		105.5	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.4		99.2	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	14.0	19.3	16.0	17.1	16.4
HOU	13.7	15.8	14.7	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	28	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-5	0	15.4	16.9	-1.50	12.9	15.5	-2.66
Johan Petro	32	31	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-6	2	19.1	15.0	4.04	16.1	14.0	2.13
Mickael Gelabale	65	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-4	-2	16.9	15.4	1.50	15.8	12.5	3.29
Earl Watson	60	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-2	-6	15.1	18.9	-3.87	13.8	16.3	-2.54
Luke Ridnour	40	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-2	-6	18.0	15.2	2.82	14.8	14.6	0.25
Chris Wilcox	64	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	0	-10	15.5	18.5	-3.02	14.2	15.8	-1.67
Ray Allen	89	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-6	2	16.2	21.5	-5.29	14.7	15.0	-0.33
Nick Collison	87	87	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-5	0	16.6	14.2	2.43	15.0	9.8	5.17

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bonzi Wells	38	39	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.19	13	-3	16	16.8	13.2	3.68	19.5	14.2	5.29
Luther Head	50	51	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-1	12	15.1	14.1	1.00	17.9	14.6	3.28
Shane Battier	74	75	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	0	10	14.2	16.7	-2.53	16.2	17.4	-1.18
Tracy McGrady	69	70	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	-2	14	13.7	17.7	-3.96	15.1	20.7	-5.60
Charles Hayes	45	46	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.16	8	2	6	14.4	14.9	-0.51	17.2	15.7	1.45
Dikembe Mutombo	47	47	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	8	-6	14.9	14.4	0.51	15.7	17.2	-1.45
Rafer Alston	72	72	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	11	-12	14.5	15.4	-0.91	15.7	18.9	-3.12
Juwan Howard	65	65	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.14	-5	15	-20	14.9	14.1	0.76	16.0	17.5	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.73,0.6,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.93,0.9,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 92, SAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.73,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
HOU 91, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,1	93.5%
OKC 93, MIN 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.84,0.94,1,1	93.4%