NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	83		Excitement	4.5 [924]		MVP	Grant Hill (ORL): +15.5%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	1.0 [566]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -10.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.03	0.01	10	70%	0.16	1	-0.01	10	90%	0.03
Carlos Arroyo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Travis Diener	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	10	41%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	54%	0.01	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Keith Bogans	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	4	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	0.03	17	42%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	8	72%	0.18	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	0.00	0.06	24	61%	0.09	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	11	61%	0.11	5	-0.07	9	78%	0.02
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	9	67%	0.10	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.1	2.6	36.0	15.5	25.6	2.4	33.2	146.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +48.4%

ORL -8.7%

ATL +5.3%

ATL +1.2%

ATL +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	14.7	17.5	15.4	92.2	104.5	104.5
season	15.9	16.1		103.4	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.7		106.1	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.5	13.2	18.1	12.8	14.7
ATL	15.8	17.5	19.8	17.2	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.02	1	-11	12	13.7	14.8	-1.07	18.6	17.4	1.27
Travis Diener	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-11	12	4.3	15.1	-10.75	13.0	17.6	-4.57
Grant Hill	55	53	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-8	6	15.8	13.1	2.68	19.2	15.0	4.20
Carlos Arroyo	28	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-7	4	14.9	14.7	0.20	18.1	17.2	0.86
Darko Milicic	48	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-9	8	14.9	14.5	0.33	17.7	17.2	0.51
Keith Bogans	48	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-10	10	13.3	16.4	-3.11	15.8	19.4	-3.57
JJ Redick	33	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-7	4	13.5	15.4	-1.95	16.9	17.8	-0.94
Tony Battie	30	30	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	4	-18	16.6	13.8	2.82	18.6	16.9	1.75
Dwight Howard	70	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-3	-4	14.6	15.2	-0.61	16.9	19.5	-2.62
Hedo Turkoglu	65	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.08	-13	3	-16	15.3	13.2	2.11	17.6	17.0	0.69
Jameer Nelson	62	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	14.7	14.9	-0.20	17.1	18.4	-1.34

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	82	82	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.04	18	-8	26	17.6	15.7	1.91	15.0	11.4	3.67
Tyronn Lue	46	46	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.20	24	-14	38	18.9	16.0	2.94	15.9	13.5	2.48
Marvin Williams	73	73	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.27	8	2	6	17.3	18.4	-1.18	14.5	15.6	-1.07
Lorenzen Wright	45	45	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.04	16	-6	22	18.0	17.0	1.02	15.3	14.2	1.09
Josh Smith	67	66	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	1	8	17.5	17.4	0.08	14.9	14.2	0.70
Zaza Pachulia	40	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	10	-10	18.3	16.8	1.46	15.2	14.4	0.81
Josh Childress	55	56	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.25	-4	14	-18	16.7	18.7	-1.95	14.3	15.4	-1.16
Salim Stoudamire	1	0	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	8	-6	9.0	17.6	-8.57	0.0	14.7	-14.72
Solomon Jones	0	2	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	12	-14	0.0	17.5	-17.47	6.0	14.9	-8.92
Royal Ivey	13	16	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.20	-10	20	-30	15.7	17.8	-2.08	12.8	15.1	-2.32
Shelden Williams	23	24	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.17	-11	21	-32	15.5	18.2	-2.69	12.6	15.5	-2.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.6,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.85,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%
MIL 82, SAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
TOR 73, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.72,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%