NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	82		Excitement	4.3 [963]		MVP	Brad Miller (SAC): +11.6%
Sacramento Kings	103		Comeback	1.0 [1222]		LVP	Bobby Simmons (MIL): -10.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jiri Welsch	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.00	-0.03	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Redd	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	15	55%	0.07	2	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
Joe Smith	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	13	66%	0.10	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	4	30%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	12	37%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Jamaal Magloire	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	10	40%	-0.01	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.04	12	17%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.03	-0.03	10	67%	0.14	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	9	70%	0.14	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.02
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	12	59%	0.06	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	17	49%	0.05	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	48%	-0.01	3	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	28.2	15.4	26.6	2.5	29.2	128.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +31.1%

SAC +6.6%

MIL -5.1%

SAC +15.7%

SAC +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.7	13.8	15.6	83.7	106.2	104.4
season	15.5	15.3		104.6	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.1	14.9	17.5	13.8	15.7
SAC	12.2	14.5	15.3	13.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	22	22	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-22	23	13.5	16.4	-2.82	14.5	13.6	0.91
Dan Gadzuric	6	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-18	15	13.5	15.9	-2.38	11.9	13.9	-2.09
Charlie Bell	17	18	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.10	-5	-16	11	14.4	16.0	-1.67	11.6	14.3	-2.68
Mo Williams	50	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	-15	9	15.7	15.8	-0.11	13.0	14.6	-1.52
Jiri Welsch	50	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.10	-7	-14	7	14.9	16.6	-1.79	13.5	14.1	-0.62
Andrew Bogut	48	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-16	11	15.5	16.0	-0.54	13.2	14.4	-1.18
Jamaal Magloire	60	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.08	-15	-6	-9	15.9	15.5	0.38	14.1	13.3	0.82
Michael Redd	65	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.11	-17	-4	-13	15.7	15.9	-0.22	14.3	12.9	1.40
Bobby Simmons	55	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	-8	-5	16.5	14.7	1.81	14.0	13.5	0.49
T.J. Ford	61	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	-7	-7	16.1	15.2	0.88	14.8	12.0	2.81
Joe Smith	56	54	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.11	-21	0	-21	17.1	13.9	3.20	13.7	14.0	-0.29

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	71	72	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.03	19	2	17	13.9	13.4	0.56	16.3	14.1	2.26
Peja Stojakovic	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.18	26	-5	31	13.9	13.4	0.47	16.4	13.3	3.12
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	69	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.17	22	-1	23	14.0	13.4	0.56	16.6	13.7	2.88
Brad Miller	72	70	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.21	23	-2	25	13.8	13.7	0.15	15.3	16.7	-1.37
Bonzi Wells	68	67	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.12	19	2	17	13.7	14.0	-0.24	15.2	16.9	-1.71
Kenny Thomas	34	34	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	18	-15	13.5	14.0	-0.50	14.9	16.2	-1.35
Kevin Martin	32	34	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	19	-17	14.3	13.6	0.73	15.4	15.9	-0.45
Corliss Williamson	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	21	-21	12.6	13.9	-1.26	15.2	15.8	-0.56
Ronnie Price	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	21	-21	12.6	13.9	-1.26	15.2	15.8	-0.56
Brian Skinner	14	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.09	-6	27	-33	14.0	13.8	0.24	15.9	15.7	0.18
Jason Hart	25	25	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.15	2	19	-17	13.4	13.9	-0.53	14.1	16.3	-2.22
Francisco Garcia	14	14	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	26	-31	12.9	14.0	-1.09	15.4	15.8	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 87, BKN 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
NYK 92, NOP 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
SAC 79, WAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%