NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	87		Excitement	5.3 [781]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +8.4%
Chicago Bulls	99		Comeback	1.9 [410]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -13.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jackie Butler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.03	10	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	48%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	0.06	20	45%	-0.06	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	19	47%	-0.02	4	-0.11	7	43%	-0.02
Tony Parker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	11	63%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	3	117%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	18	56%	0.09	3	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.01	0.05	7	71%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.03	13	43%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	18	53%	0.07	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.02	8	44%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.7	30.3	16.5	24.4	2.5	29.4	133.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +54.5%

CHI +0.6%

SAS -8.7%

CHI +5.4%

SAS -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	17.1	14.8	15.4	95.6	110.0	104.5
season	16.2	14.5		107.5	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	17.3	19.6	16.3	17.1
CHI	14.0	13.4	14.7	17.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jackie Butler	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-10	8	9.5	17.2	-7.72	23.0	14.6	8.43
Eric Williams	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-14	16	19.5	17.0	2.50	18.0	14.6	3.36
Bruce Bowen	69	69	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.33	10	-22	32	17.4	15.9	1.51	14.9	14.3	0.61
Jacque Vaughn	8	9	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-13	14	13.2	17.4	-4.17	17.6	14.4	3.11
Tim Duncan	68	69	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.27	6	-18	24	17.7	15.0	2.75	15.0	14.1	0.86
Tony Parker	55	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-8	4	17.0	17.1	-0.14	13.6	16.3	-2.75
Robert Horry	48	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-9	6	17.4	16.7	0.68	13.9	15.6	-1.78
Beno Udrih	30	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	-1	-10	17.7	16.8	0.91	16.4	13.9	2.54
Michael Finley	43	43	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-4	-4	18.2	16.0	2.19	14.6	14.9	-0.33
Brent Barry	33	33	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-3	-6	15.8	17.7	-1.89	15.8	14.1	1.68
Fabricio Oberto	36	36	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	3	-18	16.8	17.2	-0.41	13.8	15.4	-1.58
Manu Ginobili	61	58	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	0.11	-27	15	-42	16.0	19.2	-3.15	14.4	15.4	-0.96

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andres Nocioni	62	63	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.08	13	-1	14	14.9	14.5	0.32	16.3	18.9	-2.60
Thabo Sefolosha	25	27	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.13	20	-8	28	14.0	15.0	-0.99	16.5	17.3	-0.82
Kirk Hinrich	81	82	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	8	-4	14.9	13.7	1.21	17.0	18.0	-1.05
Luol Deng	78	79	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	6	0	14.3	17.7	-3.46	16.8	19.0	-2.24
Tyrus Thomas	43	43	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	1	10	14.0	15.5	-1.54	17.7	16.5	1.17
Ben Gordon	74	73	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.22	0	12	-12	14.9	14.2	0.61	17.4	15.7	1.66
Viktor Khryapa	12	12	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	6	0	17.7	14.3	3.46	19.0	16.8	2.24
Michael Sweetney	13	14	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	8	-4	15.0	14.7	0.29	17.9	16.9	0.95
P.J. Brown	49	49	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.20	-3	15	-18	15.6	13.8	1.79	18.2	15.7	2.49
Malik Allen	13	13	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.01	-1	13	-14	13.6	14.9	-1.33	13.7	17.6	-3.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.87,0.86,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 89, DAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
LAL 91, SAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.5%
DEN 81, DAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.87,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%