NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	117		Excitement	7.5 [346]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +24.3%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	2.5 [289]		LVP	Darko Milicic (ORL): -9.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.24	0.17	0.10	0.02	23	62%	0.31	2	-0.07	15	87%	0.06
Mike Dunleavy	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.22	0.16	0.08	0.02	14	75%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.01	11	58%	0.16	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	6	57%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	9	56%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.05	0.02	11	53%	0.11	2	-0.05	12	67%	-0.04
Patrick O'Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	5	36%	-0.05	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.11	-0.01	8	62%	0.19	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.04
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.05	-0.03	6	42%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	15	62%	0.17	3	-0.12	7	71%	-0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	18	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.03	13	69%	0.12	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	8	32%	-0.04	1	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.5	35.8	16.6	32.4	3.5	35.5	152.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +25.9%

GSW +1.9%

GSW +3.0%

GSW +22.3%

ORL -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	13.6	15.3	15.4	117.0	109.1	104.5
season	13.5	15.9		105.7	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.9	11.8	15.2	17.8	13.6
ORL	15.4	14.9	16.1	15.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	56	57	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.19	18	-9	27	14.7	12.2	2.46	16.3	14.0	2.38
Monta Ellis	71	70	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-6	21	14.2	12.2	1.96	16.4	12.7	3.68
Baron Davis	90	89	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	6	-3	13.9	11.4	2.48	14.9	19.1	-4.20
Mike Dunleavy	65	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	3	3	14.0	12.9	1.19	15.7	14.7	0.99
Matt Barnes	66	66	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	6	-3	14.4	12.1	2.25	14.3	17.4	-3.15
Mickael Pietrus	61	62	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	7	-5	12.7	15.1	-2.37	15.3	15.4	-0.09
Patrick O'Bryant	7	6	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	5	-1	8.3	14.0	-5.75	11.8	15.5	-3.72
Ike Diogu	12	11	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	5	-1	12.2	13.8	-1.66	17.3	15.1	2.19
Jason Richardson	35	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.10	3	6	-3	11.7	14.6	-2.90	15.0	15.5	-0.45
Andris Biedrins	37	36	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	0.06	-13	22	-35	13.0	14.0	-1.00	14.3	15.9	-1.60

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	36	37	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-8	7	17.1	14.3	2.85	12.8	14.1	-1.39
Travis Diener	33	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-10	11	15.7	15.2	0.52	12.7	14.1	-1.45
Darko Milicic	36	39	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.12	2	-11	13	17.4	14.2	3.20	14.1	13.4	0.69
Trevor Ariza	81	81	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	-7	5	14.9	17.3	-2.39	13.7	13.4	0.26
Tony Battie	55	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	1	-11	15.3	15.4	-0.11	12.8	14.6	-1.84
Dwight Howard	85	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-6	3	14.6	19.7	-5.11	13.5	14.4	-0.91
Jameer Nelson	53	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.20	-5	-4	-1	14.0	16.8	-2.85	14.9	12.3	2.61
Keyon Dooling	42	43	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.20	-10	1	-11	16.6	14.4	2.21	13.9	13.4	0.49
Grant Hill	74	73	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.20	-17	8	-25	14.9	16.7	-1.82	14.0	12.7	1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 82, HOU 74	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.01,0	94.2%
SAS 95, CHA 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.12,0.19,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	93.3%
POR 96, UTA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.06,0,0	93.2%