NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	111		Excitement	8.3 [228]		MVP	Chris Duhon (CHI): +14.3%
Chicago Bulls	117		Comeback	2.1 [834]		LVP	Charlie Villanueva (MIL): -14.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.13	0.14	0.01	0.03	24	56%	0.13	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.03
Charlie Bell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	65%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	17	48%	0.02	0	0.00	10	30%	-0.10
Mo Williams	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.22,-0.15,0	-0.04	0.05	0.01	15	58%	0.14	6	-0.14	1	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Blake	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.02	6	75%	0.06	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04
Dan Gadzuric	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Brian Skinner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	6	29%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.05

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.01	12	73%	0.26	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.05	-0.04	8	50%	0.12	1	-0.03	12	50%	-0.08
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	14	62%	0.12	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.01	8	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	78%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.13,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.07	0.01	15	43%	0.09	4	-0.11	12	100%	0.12
Andres Nocioni	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	12	46%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	36%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.6	32.1	16.6	30.1	1.7	43.2	152.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +10.2%

CHI +28.4%

CHI +11.3%

MIL -2.3%

CHI +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	13.9	14.0	15.4	104.7	115.8	104.5
season	15.2	14.5		105.3	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.1	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.4	13.7	14.6	12.1	13.9
CHI	14.0	15.1	13.6	13.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Noel	22	22	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-7	8	14.8	13.6	1.20	15.0	13.7	1.39
Charlie Villanueva	46	47	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-7	8	14.6	13.3	1.23	14.6	13.4	1.11
Dan Gadzuric	30	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-6	6	13.8	13.9	-0.05	15.5	13.3	2.14
Andrew Bogut	61	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	-2	-2	14.9	12.5	2.40	14.1	13.8	0.26
Brian Skinner	22	18	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	1	-8	11.6	14.5	-2.82	10.3	14.8	-4.48
Steve Blake	32	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	3	-12	13.6	14.0	-0.44	15.0	13.5	1.46
Charlie Bell	78	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.45	4	-10	14	13.1	16.1	-2.99	13.9	14.0	-0.05
Mo Williams	71	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-4	2	13.9	13.7	0.19	13.4	15.1	-1.66
Ruben Patterson	81	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.11	-10	4	-14	14.1	13.2	0.93	14.0	13.9	0.05
Michael Redd	87	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	13.7	14.7	-0.99	13.6	15.6	-2.01

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	47	51	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-5	16	13.6	14.2	-0.60	13.1	14.6	-1.48
Ben Wallace	101	105	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.0	0.0	13.96	13.9	6.0	7.94
Chris Duhon	68	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	-6	18	13.6	14.7	-1.09	14.0	13.7	0.28
Ben Gordon	53	53	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.37	2	4	-2	13.4	14.5	-1.11	13.6	14.1	-0.49
Kirk Hinrich	87	91	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	0	6	14.3	11.9	2.36	14.1	12.6	1.48
Adrian Griffin	18	19	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	-1	8	15.5	13.6	1.87	13.1	14.0	-0.93
Luol Deng	52	57	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.07	6	0	6	13.6	14.3	-0.71	14.1	13.6	0.44
Andres Nocioni	47	48	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	6	-6	14.2	13.7	0.51	14.8	13.1	1.65
Michael Sweetney	11	12	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	5	-4	13.7	14.0	-0.26	13.2	13.9	-0.70
Malik Allen	5	5	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.06	-8	14	-22	15.0	13.9	1.09	15.2	13.8	1.40
Thabo Sefolosha	16	17	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.18	-13	19	-32	14.8	13.8	1.01	12.6	14.1	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.55,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.88,0.86,0.64,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 91, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.79,0.84,0.72,1	92.1%
GSW 90, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.92,1	92.0%
GSW 108, SEA 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.88,0.93,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.81,0.89,0.84,0.95,1	91.9%