NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	115		Excitement	7.0 [447]		MVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): +20.8%
Seattle SuperSonics	117		Comeback	9.7 [212]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): -10.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.20	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.06	-0.00	19	62%	0.21	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.03
Troy Murphy	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	61%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.07	0.01	0.05	16	54%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Andris Biedrins	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.06	0.02	8	81%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Keith McLeod	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.05	5	59%	-0.02	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.02
Anthony Roberson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	9	60%	-0.02	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.21	0.21	0.08	0.15	0.02	17	63%	0.29	3	-0.08	7	71%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.05	0.02	17	62%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	14	63%	0.15	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.04
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	19	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Mickael Gelabale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.7	34.8	14.8	26.1	1.6	33.8	136.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +23.9%

SEA +12.0%

SEA +10.5%

SEA +4.6%

GSW -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SEA	NBA	GSW	SEA	NBA
this game	13.8	15.6	15.4	117.3	119.4	104.5
season	13.5	15.4		105.7	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.2		108.3	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.1	12.9	17.4	13.0	13.8
SEA	16.7	14.3	13.9	17.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	8	7	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-6	10	13.0	13.8	-0.84	22.3	15.1	7.19
Mike Dunleavy	19	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.23	4	-6	10	14.3	13.6	0.67	15.5	15.6	-0.11
Keith McLeod	45	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-4	6	13.1	14.3	-1.19	14.0	16.9	-2.83
Anthony Roberson	15	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.33	5	-7	12	12.1	14.1	-1.94	17.2	15.3	1.88
Mickael Pietrus	65	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	3	-8	14.1	13.2	0.90	15.7	15.4	0.31
Andris Biedrins	58	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-1	0	14.3	13.0	1.35	16.6	14.0	2.63
Baron Davis	83	83	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-3	4	13.7	13.9	-0.19	15.6	15.7	-0.06
Matt Barnes	76	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.31	0	-2	2	13.4	15.0	-1.52	14.8	18.3	-3.57
Troy Murphy	57	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	8	-18	14.0	13.5	0.45	15.1	16.3	-1.24
Monta Ellis	64	65	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.41	-10	8	-18	14.0	13.3	0.69	16.0	14.9	1.11

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	84	83	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.35	10	-8	18	15.7	14.8	0.96	14.4	10.4	3.99
Earl Watson	65	66	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.42	4	-2	6	16.0	14.8	1.20	13.7	13.8	-0.10
Nick Collison	63	65	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.34	6	-4	10	15.0	16.8	-1.80	14.1	13.2	0.94
Luke Ridnour	72	72	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	-1	4	15.5	15.9	-0.42	14.1	12.8	1.26
Rashard Lewis	91	90	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	1	0	15.6	15.7	-0.11	13.3	18.6	-5.28
Chris Wilcox	62	59	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.13	1	1	0	15.9	15.2	0.70	14.4	12.8	1.67
Mickael Gelabale	24	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.25	-11	13	-24	13.5	16.3	-2.80	12.2	14.3	-2.02
Mike Wilks	8	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.01	-3	5	-8	14.9	15.7	-0.80	7.6	14.3	-6.70
Johan Petro	21	23	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.08	-1	3	-4	18.1	14.9	3.16	13.4	13.9	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.25,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 91, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.6,0.61,0.72,0.83,0.84,1	92.8%
SAS 99, OKC 107	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.27,0.33,0.21,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.95,1	92.3%
SAS 92, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.48,0.67,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.64,0.84,0.95,0.98,1	91.6%