NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	3.3 [1137]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +9.3%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	1.1 [1210]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -15.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.05	6	71%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	9	69%	0.05	3	-0.03	8	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.02	9	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	5	31%	0.00	1	-0.01	6	50%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	57%	0.04	4	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	15	37%	-0.05	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.21	-0.00	-0.05	26	33%	-0.09	5	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.00	19	63%	0.11	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	-0.00	-0.03	24	56%	0.10	4	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	15	62%	0.08	5	-0.05	10	90%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.10	4	58%	0.04	5	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Ager	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	-0.06	8	28%	-0.00	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	32.2	16.3	27.5	1.7	34.3	138.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.5%

DAL +0.0%

DAL +8.2%

DAL +4.4%

DAL +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	13.3	16.4	15.4	92.8	108.2	104.5
season	14.0	16.3		105.8	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.3	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.9	16.0	13.6	10.4	13.3
DAL	14.3	16.0	20.0	15.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	28	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-18	21	12.7	13.6	-0.89	18.6	15.6	3.05
DerMarr Johnson	17	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-12	9	13.6	13.2	0.41	15.6	16.6	-0.93
Earl Boykins	46	46	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-16	17	11.9	14.6	-2.66	16.6	16.2	0.39
Linas Kleiza	36	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-14	13	12.1	14.0	-1.91	16.4	16.4	0.03
Eduardo Najera	53	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-13	11	13.5	13.0	0.48	15.7	17.3	-1.62
J.R. Smith	71	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	-6	-3	13.1	14.0	-0.94	15.4	18.6	-3.19
Yakhouba Diawara	36	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	-5	-5	11.7	14.2	-2.52	17.2	15.9	1.34
Marcus Camby	61	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.09	-18	3	-21	14.4	11.4	3.05	16.2	16.7	-0.52
Carmelo Anthony	68	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.05	-17	2	-19	14.5	10.6	3.84	17.0	15.1	1.90
Andre Miller	69	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.10	-19	4	-23	13.8	12.0	1.79	16.3	16.7	-0.45

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	90	92	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	1	13	16.4	16.1	0.26	13.4	11.4	2.01
Josh Howard	85	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	0	15	16.0	18.7	-2.70	13.3	13.1	0.19
Jason Terry	80	78	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	5	5	15.9	18.7	-2.82	13.0	14.6	-1.64
Devin Harris	61	62	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	6	3	15.2	18.3	-3.06	13.8	12.4	1.47
Erick Dampier	50	51	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	9	-3	14.5	18.4	-3.84	13.0	13.7	-0.69
DeSagana Diop	43	43	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	11	-7	19.0	14.3	4.66	14.0	12.7	1.28
Devean George	41	41	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	9	-3	18.5	14.8	3.65	12.2	14.1	-1.85
Greg Buckner	31	32	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.09	8	7	1	17.7	15.7	2.00	14.2	12.8	1.40
DJ Mbenga	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	13	-11	13.5	16.4	-2.94	5.0	13.4	-8.40
Maurice Ager	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	14	-13	13.5	16.4	-2.94	7.5	13.4	-5.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 86, PHX 108	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
WAS 86, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	96.8%
PHX 99, GSW 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	96.7%