NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	107		Excitement	7.6 [325]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +24.9%
Dallas Mavericks	104		Comeback	2.3 [154]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -27.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.04	-0.01	10	87%	0.22	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19	0.04	0.15	-0.00	9	73%	0.27	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	86%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Matt Barnes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	8	67%	0.10	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Baron Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	22	49%	0.09	4	-0.11	9	67%	-0.04
Jason Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	19	48%	0.07	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.05

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.16	0.05	-0.04	10	81%	0.36	3	-0.11	12	92%	0.06
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.07	0.00	7	81%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.08	0.02	14	57%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.04
Josh Howard	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	10	59%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	0.00	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	70%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	0.00	15	47%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.27	-0.27	-0.12	-0.15	-0.00	12	25%	-0.15	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	27.5	15.6	24.2	2.4	30.6	128.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +16.1%

GSW +14.4%

GSW +1.2%

GSW +11.3%

GSW +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.4	116.3	109.5	104.5
season	13.5	16.3		105.7	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.2		102.3	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	14.7	14.6	19.2	15.6
DAL	14.4	16.6	14.8	15.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	57	58	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.44	11	-8	19	15.9	15.3	0.62	16.2	13.6	2.53
Troy Murphy	81	85	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	-1	5	15.8	14.7	1.04	14.9	17.1	-2.16
Mickael Pietrus	66	71	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	-2	7	15.9	14.9	1.05	15.5	14.1	1.45
Baron Davis	92	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	15.6	0.0	15.64	15.2	0.0	15.17
Jason Richardson	67	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	0	3	15.2	16.7	-1.48	14.4	17.4	-3.03
Mike Dunleavy	25	25	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	1	1	14.2	16.2	-1.98	16.5	14.7	1.78
Matt Barnes	18	17	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	4	-5	15.1	15.8	-0.73	14.3	15.4	-1.06
Andris Biedrins	54	54	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	-0.02	-12	15	-27	16.2	14.8	1.36	14.7	15.8	-1.12

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	27	26	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-4	5	16.1	14.8	1.27	14.3	16.2	-1.86
Josh Howard	32	30	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.07	4	-7	11	14.4	15.6	-1.20	15.5	15.7	-0.21
Erick Dampier	29	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-2	1	15.9	14.9	1.00	15.1	15.9	-0.84
Jerry Stackhouse	53	52	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-3	3	14.5	16.0	-1.49	14.3	17.3	-2.98
Devin Harris	67	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-5	7	15.6	14.2	1.30	15.8	15.4	0.41
Dirk Nowitzki	85	81	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-5	7	15.3	14.3	0.97	15.9	13.9	1.97
Anthony Johnson	39	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.27	-3	0	-3	14.0	16.0	-1.98	14.9	16.1	-1.23
Jason Terry	70	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	4	-11	15.8	13.5	2.24	16.1	14.4	1.67
Greg Buckner	43	41	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.34	-3	0	-3	15.0	15.3	-0.39	17.9	13.9	3.99
Austin Croshere	30	30	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	7	-17	15.0	15.2	-0.25	15.8	15.6	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.39,0.25,0.02,0.01,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.16,0	92.6%
BOS 89, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.27,0.41,0.28,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.08,0	92.4%
IND 100, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.51,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.11,0,0,0	92.4%