NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	78		Excitement	5.7 [695]		MVP	Orien Greene (BOS): +16.9%
Boston Celtics	85		Comeback	1.7 [880]		LVP	Earl Barron (MIA): -14.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Simien	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	6	60%	0.16	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	10	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	7	47%	0.04	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Payton	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Dorell Wright	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.04	-0.04	0.08	10	62%	0.00	4	-0.08	12	83%	0.02
Earl Barron	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.14	-0.04	-0.03	6	7%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.08	-0.04	9	58%	0.20	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	9	68%	0.15	2	-0.03	10	100%	0.06
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	9	56%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	58%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	11	57%	0.09	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.04
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	29%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.16	-0.01	-0.07	11	17%	-0.08	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	10	36%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.4	30.6	16.4	26.4	2.4	27.5	131.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -2.1%

BOS +33.6%

BOS +16.3%

BOS +9.4%

MIA -7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.0	15.6	82.1	90.4	104.4
season	15.5	14.8		106.1	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		104.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	16.1	15.4	16.9	15.4
BOS	12.3	16.6	16.6	15.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	6	7	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.01	4	-11	15	15.7	15.4	0.24	17.0	14.9	2.13
Udonis Haslem	43	43	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-10	13	15.6	15.3	0.34	15.2	14.9	0.24
Michael Doleac	52	53	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-8	9	14.5	16.6	-2.08	15.4	14.6	0.79
Antoine Walker	47	48	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-6	5	15.6	15.3	0.22	14.8	15.3	-0.53
Gary Payton	21	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-3	-1	13.8	15.9	-2.10	11.8	16.0	-4.26
Derek Anderson	36	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.10	-9	2	-11	15.8	15.2	0.54	16.9	14.0	2.90
Dorell Wright	59	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-7	7	15.7	15.0	0.67	14.7	15.6	-0.88
Wayne Simien	48	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-1	-5	15.3	15.6	-0.22	15.3	14.8	0.53
Jason Kapono	68	64	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	-2	-3	15.5	15.2	0.31	15.2	14.6	0.68
James Posey	60	59	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	2	-11	16.1	14.3	1.74	15.1	14.9	0.19
Earl Barron	35	33	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.29	-9	2	-11	15.5	15.4	0.11	14.2	15.5	-1.31

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwayne Jones	53	53	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.28	16	-9	25	14.9	15.2	-0.25	16.2	14.5	1.60
Orien Greene	59	59	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-3	13	15.2	14.7	0.55	15.2	15.9	-0.76
Ryan Gomes	71	72	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.05	19	-12	31	14.7	16.2	-1.51	15.7	14.7	0.98
Brian Scalabrine	44	42	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.33	0	7	-7	16.3	13.9	2.42	16.7	14.5	2.19
Tony Allen	49	49	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	0	7	15.2	14.8	0.44	15.7	15.2	0.56
Raef LaFrentz	39	42	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	3	1	13.7	16.0	-2.25	14.3	16.4	-2.07
Michael Olowokandi	34	34	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.27	-8	15	-23	15.9	14.6	1.29	15.6	15.3	0.32
Gerald Green	64	69	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	10	-13	14.7	15.7	-1.03	14.7	17.4	-2.67
Kendrick Perkins	57	55	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.18	-10	17	-27	15.0	15.1	-0.13	15.3	15.7	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.66,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
OKC 119, NOP 123	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,1	93.1%
SAC 74, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.1%