NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	96		Excitement	5.6 [709]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +20.1%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	2.4 [785]		LVP	Rafael Araujo (TOR): -13.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	13	66%	0.13	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Morris Peterson	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	16	61%	0.16	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.05
Andre Barrett	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pape Sow	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Mike James	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	-0.00	14	66%	0.11	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.02
Joey Graham	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	8	30%	-0.05	3	-0.08	4	0%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.05	-0.03	19	61%	0.22	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.01	11	73%	0.21	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	16	51%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	7	61%	0.06	3	-0.07	9	44%	-0.08
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.05
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	10	26%	-0.05	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.6	34.6	16.6	27.1	2.4	29.5	137.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +22.5%

TOR -2.8%

ORL +0.4%

ORL +27.1%

ORL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	14.6	16.0	15.6	102.1	109.6	104.4
season	15.6	16.4		107.3	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		105.9	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.1	13.7	15.8	13.8	14.6
ORL	14.9	16.3	16.2	16.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	62	64	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.11	10	-17	27	14.4	15.1	-0.69	16.7	14.6	2.15
Darrick Martin	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-10	13	15.5	14.6	0.91	11.5	16.1	-4.63
Joey Graham	38	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-8	9	14.1	14.9	-0.84	16.0	16.1	-0.10
Jose Calderon	47	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.33	6	-13	19	14.1	15.1	-1.04	16.2	15.8	0.40
Rafael Araujo	49	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.07	-3	-4	1	15.0	14.2	0.74	15.4	16.7	-1.34
Andre Barrett	34	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-4	1	13.8	15.1	-1.32	16.2	15.9	0.23
Loren Woods	32	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.12	-7	0	-7	15.2	14.3	0.83	16.4	15.8	0.57
Mike James	77	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	1	-9	14.7	14.2	0.45	16.1	15.7	0.45
Pape Sow	51	51	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	7	-21	15.2	13.9	1.29	15.5	16.7	-1.27
Morris Peterson	78	80	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.16	-20	13	-33	14.8	13.7	1.03	16.0	16.4	-0.38

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	76	77	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.16	23	-16	39	16.0	16.3	-0.30	14.7	14.4	0.31
Hedo Turkoglu	69	69	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.19	19	-12	31	15.7	16.8	-1.10	14.9	13.8	1.15
Tony Battie	55	55	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.01	23	-16	39	15.2	17.2	-1.96	15.2	13.7	1.47
DeShawn Stevenson	71	69	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.21	13	-6	19	15.8	16.7	-0.94	14.8	14.0	0.83
Dwight Howard	71	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	-4	15	16.1	15.7	0.45	14.9	13.9	0.98
Keyon Dooling	44	45	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.26	-11	18	-29	16.9	15.3	1.56	13.6	15.5	-1.85
Darko Milicic	34	36	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.20	-10	17	-27	16.8	15.6	1.19	14.1	14.9	-0.85
Bo Outlaw	11	11	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	12	-17	16.5	16.0	0.48	13.6	14.7	-1.10
Travis Diener	12	11	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.13	-13	20	-33	16.0	16.0	-0.04	14.6	14.6	0.03
Trevor Ariza	27	27	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.19	-15	22	-37	16.4	15.9	0.58	13.9	14.9	-1.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.54,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.72,0.81,0.7,0.74,0.83,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.93,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, GSW 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%
WAS 80, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%
POR 96, PHX 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1	93.8%