NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	93		Excitement	8.1 [257]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (IND): +37.1%
Atlanta Hawks	94		Comeback	1.8 [852]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -36.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.37	0.27	0.12	0.02	19	82%	0.37	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	12	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.06	13	38%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Scot Pollard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	80%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Danny Granger	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
David Harrison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26	-0.11	-0.15	-0.00	9	44%	-0.07	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.37	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.37	-0.09	-0.27	0.01	12	41%	-0.28	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.08	0.08	-0.00	6	93%	0.24	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	13	61%	0.13	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Grundy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
John Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	19	47%	0.06	1	-0.03	11	55%	-0.19
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	8	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Donta Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	7	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.17	-0.01	-0.04	18	30%	-0.04	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	28.4	17.3	23.3	2.5	35.5	133.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +21.7%

ATL +0.6%

IND -4.1%

ATL +6.9%

ATL +24.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ATL	NBA	IND	ATL	NBA
this game	16.7	15.7	15.6	104.5	105.6	104.4
season	16.0	15.6		102.3	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.3	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	17.3	17.3	16.7	15.2	16.7
ATL	14.8	14.6	16.0	17.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scot Pollard	6	6	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-5	9	15.7	16.7	-1.06	13.7	15.9	-2.19
David Harrison	23	21	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-2	3	18.3	16.1	2.17	14.6	16.1	-1.49
Jamaal Tinsley	57	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.27	5	-6	11	15.2	19.3	-4.15	15.2	16.5	-1.33
Peja Stojakovic	69	68	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.28	5	-6	11	15.7	19.9	-4.19	15.8	15.3	0.49
Jermaine O'Neal	56	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-3	5	15.3	18.9	-3.59	16.7	14.0	2.72
Jeff Foster	58	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	4	-9	17.8	14.4	3.43	14.8	17.6	-2.79
Fred Jones	53	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.55	8	-9	17	16.4	17.0	-0.58	16.4	14.7	1.72
Anthony Johnson	32	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.20	-6	5	-11	19.3	15.2	4.15	16.5	15.2	1.33
Danny Granger	33	31	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	0	-1	16.0	17.0	-1.04	17.1	15.0	2.08
Stephen Jackson	58	61	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.15	-18	17	-35	17.9	14.3	3.62	14.9	17.6	-2.72

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Childress	56	55	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.51	3	-2	5	16.2	14.8	1.41	17.3	15.6	1.72
Marvin Williams	53	54	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.24	10	-9	19	15.6	15.8	-0.16	18.7	13.5	5.22
Al Harrington	77	77	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	-2	5	15.7	15.9	-0.24	16.6	17.2	-0.69
Anthony Grundy	27	26	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	-5	11	15.1	16.0	-0.91	19.3	15.6	3.75
Zaza Pachulia	73	76	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.37	-3	4	-7	15.6	16.2	-0.58	15.7	21.9	-6.17
Josh Smith	55	52	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.36	-4	5	-9	16.1	15.1	0.96	15.5	18.2	-2.72
Joe Johnson	68	69	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.39	-9	10	-19	15.8	15.5	0.30	15.6	20.4	-4.83
Donta Smith	1	0	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	1	-1	0.0	15.9	-15.89	0.0	16.7	-16.65
Royal Ivey	27	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.11	2	-1	3	15.1	16.0	-0.91	15.6	17.1	-1.58
John Edwards	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	4	-7	16.9	15.6	1.28	19.6	16.4	3.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.96,0.87,0.9,0.78,0.83,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 84, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.75,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.86,0.89,0.97,0.97,1	93.5%
PHI 104, TOR 111	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,1	93.3%
OKC 119, NOP 123	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,1	93.2%