NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	6.7 [469]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +7.5%
New Orleans Hornets	95		Comeback	2.1 [763]		LVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): -17.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	10	62%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Brian Grant	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	12	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	16	45%	-0.02	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.06
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	14	38%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	10	25%	-0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	17	33%	-0.10	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	6	25%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	61%	0.04	1	-0.03	11	100%	0.06
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.09	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	20	61%	0.10	5	-0.15	14	100%	0.07
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	10	48%	-0.00	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	-0.01	3	-0.09	10	80%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.5	27.4	15.7	27.5	2.6	43.3	144.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +14.2%

NOH +37.2%

NOH +21.5%

MIA -22.7%

MIA -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOH	NBA	MIA	NOH	NBA
this game	16.1	15.2	15.7	92.3	102.2	100.5
season	16.2	16.0		99.3	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.9		99.4	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	19.1	13.9	16.6	15.0	16.1
NOH	13.8	18.2	14.1	15.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	33	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-8	5	17.5	15.3	2.22	17.5	14.0	3.47
Eddie Jones	74	75	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-9	7	15.4	19.2	-3.78	15.6	13.8	1.78
Brian Grant	27	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-7	3	16.3	16.0	0.23	16.0	14.8	1.19
Udonis Haslem	70	71	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-11	11	15.4	18.3	-2.90	15.5	14.1	1.41
Dwyane Wade	58	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.34	2	-13	15	15.5	17.2	-1.65	15.2	15.3	-0.14
Rasual Butler	38	40	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	0	-11	16.6	15.7	0.87	13.6	16.4	-2.83
Lamar Odom	85	86	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.13	-18	7	-25	16.6	9.0	7.60	14.7	22.0	-7.34
Rafer Alston	70	71	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.15	-19	8	-27	16.4	15.1	1.30	14.8	16.7	-1.92

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	38	38	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.24	12	-1	13	13.4	16.5	-3.03	15.2	16.8	-1.62
P.J. Brown	81	79	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.11	16	-5	21	14.5	20.3	-5.88	16.5	13.7	2.71
Baron Davis	83	80	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	0	11	15.0	17.0	-2.00	15.5	20.5	-5.06
Jamaal Magloire	71	70	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	4	3	15.5	14.3	1.23	15.7	17.6	-1.91
Steven Smith	23	21	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	6	-1	16.0	15.0	1.04	19.8	15.0	4.76
Darrell Armstrong	40	41	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	12	-13	16.3	14.4	1.99	15.4	16.7	-1.25
David Wesley	68	66	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	6	-1	15.3	15.0	0.24	15.9	16.6	-0.64
David West	27	27	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	12	-13	15.7	15.0	0.69	16.3	16.0	0.28
George Lynch	34	33	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.07	1	10	-9	16.6	14.4	2.12	17.5	15.3	2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.75,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.86,0.89,0.97,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 93, ATL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.96,0.87,0.9,0.78,0.83,0.92,1	93.5%
MIL 89, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,1	93.4%
PHI 104, TOR 111	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,1	93.2%