NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	91		Excitement	8.6 [192]		MVP	Bonzi Wells (SAC): +19.5%
Utah Jazz	89		Comeback	1.7 [409]		LVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): -40.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.19,0.19	0.05	0.15	0.00	16	62%	0.33	4	-0.14	5	80%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	2	117%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.08	-0.02	9	52%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Brad Miller	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	46%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Vitaly Potapenko	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.2	-0.00	-0.17	0.03	15	55%	-0.12	4	-0.08	14	71%	-0.03
Metta World Peace	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22	-0.17	-0.07	-0.03	12	23%	-0.18	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	9	77%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Keith McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.02	6	64%	0.15	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	62%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kris Humphries	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Deron Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.05	0.05	14	54%	0.04	6	-0.21	7	43%	-0.13
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	12	43%	-0.00	5	-0.17	11	45%	-0.06
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.41	-0.41	-0.12	-0.29	-0.00	16	36%	-0.17	3	-0.23	4	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.5	30.4	15.4	25.8	1.0	29.8	131.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +7.4%

SAC +9.1%

UTA -29.6%

SAC +61.7%

SAC +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	UTA	NBA	SAC	UTA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	15.6	95.8	94.7	104.4
season	15.3	17.0		104.7	101.7
opponent	15.0	15.5		104.6	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.1	18.1	14.5	18.0	15.5
UTA	15.1	12.7	16.2	16.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	80	79	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.41	11	-9	20	15.1	17.5	-2.43	15.4	12.9	2.53
Mike Bibby	80	81	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.41	9	-7	16	14.8	19.3	-4.49	15.3	13.3	1.95
Brad Miller	84	83	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.45	6	-4	10	15.1	18.5	-3.36	14.8	16.4	-1.56
Kenny Thomas	67	67	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-7	16	15.4	15.7	-0.33	15.8	13.1	2.69
Bonzi Wells	73	72	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.37	3	-1	4	16.4	12.5	3.88	15.5	13.5	2.00
Corliss Williamson	5	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	1	0	15.4	15.5	-0.09	9.6	15.3	-5.69
Francisco Garcia	28	28	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	7	-12	14.1	16.1	-1.95	13.6	15.6	-1.92
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	26	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	7	-12	17.0	14.9	2.09	15.7	14.7	1.02
Vitaly Potapenko	8	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.09	-7	9	-16	15.5	15.5	0.02	11.9	15.3	-3.43
Jason Hart	24	22	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.08	-12	14	-26	18.0	14.6	3.37	12.7	15.7	-2.95

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	53	53	0.33	-0.83	1.15	-0.03	12	-14	26	15.0	14.9	0.11	16.3	14.4	1.89
Keith McLeod	54	55	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.10	14	-16	30	14.4	15.7	-1.32	15.8	15.0	0.84
Jarron Collins	42	45	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.22	14	-16	30	15.1	14.9	0.23	15.4	15.5	-0.12
Kris Humphries	2	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-1	0	10.0	15.1	-5.10	19.0	15.4	3.55
Milt Palacio	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-2	2	7.0	15.1	-8.08	0.0	15.5	-15.48
Mehmet Okur	63	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	3	-8	14.7	15.5	-0.74	16.2	14.2	1.95
Andrei Kirilenko	74	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	1	-4	15.6	12.7	2.91	16.4	12.0	4.36
Carlos Boozer	81	82	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.33	-12	10	-22	15.2	13.5	1.77	15.0	18.8	-3.81
Matt Harpring	60	61	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.41	-13	11	-24	14.3	16.2	-1.86	13.7	18.7	-5.06
Deron Williams	40	40	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.34	-16	14	-30	15.7	14.4	1.32	15.0	15.8	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 101, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.52,0.63,0.78,0.42,0	91.8%
IND 94, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.43,0.47,0.3,0.41,0.27,0.38,0.36,0.55,0.37,0	91.3%
ATL 97, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.29,0.43,0.47,0.69,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.43,0.41,0	90.9%