NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	6.6 [507]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +18.6%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	1.4 [910]		LVP	Marcus Camby (DEN): -12.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.04	-0.04	10	48%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Manu Ginobili	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.16	-0.02	0.08	14	74%	0.12	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	5	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.06	-0.01	18	44%	0.04	2	-0.02	14	43%	-0.15
Brent Barry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	15	44%	0.09	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Robert Horry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	6	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.14	0.03	23	62%	0.28	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.05
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	12	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	11	65%	0.12	5	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.01	12	45%	0.07	3	-0.08	9	78%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	10	35%	-0.09	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	3.8	31.2	17.5	36.2	3.7	35.2	153.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.1%

DEN +6.4%

DEN +32.9%

SAS -11.6%

SAS -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	15.6	96.8	109.5	104.4
season	16.3	14.4		106.0	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		103.5	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.7	15.6	13.9	15.5	15.6
DEN	14.3	13.7	14.9	15.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	55	56	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.02	9	-21	30	15.9	15.3	0.57	15.2	13.9	1.38
Nazr Mohammed	45	45	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-14	16	16.6	14.8	1.84	14.0	15.3	-1.30
Fabricio Oberto	9	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	-5	-2	13.9	15.8	-1.93	11.2	15.0	-3.75
Rasho Nesterovic	11	11	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-6	0	13.5	15.9	-2.46	8.7	15.5	-6.74
Brent Barry	14	13	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	-4	-4	17.3	15.3	1.94	12.0	15.1	-3.11
Tony Parker	70	72	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-10	8	15.0	17.3	-2.24	15.3	12.9	2.39
Beno Udrih	25	23	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	-2	-8	17.3	15.0	2.24	12.9	15.3	-2.39
Robert Horry	51	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-6	0	14.8	16.5	-1.70	15.9	13.3	2.59
Manu Ginobili	67	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	-3	-6	14.9	17.5	-2.60	14.4	15.2	-0.80
Tim Duncan	74	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	-5	-2	16.1	13.9	2.22	15.5	11.5	3.97
Michael Finley	54	54	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.25	-16	4	-20	15.9	15.3	0.64	15.0	14.2	0.82

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	64	61	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.01	17	-5	22	13.8	16.5	-2.62	14.0	18.5	-4.47
Greg Buckner	56	57	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	2	8	14.7	14.7	0.03	16.8	13.8	3.03
Reggie Evans	45	46	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.17	6	6	0	15.1	14.3	0.77	17.6	13.8	3.75
Francisco Elson	22	23	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	3	6	15.8	14.4	1.42	18.7	14.6	4.10
Howard Eisley	21	22	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	4	4	14.7	14.7	-0.02	18.1	14.9	3.26
Andre Miller	74	73	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	8	-4	14.7	14.7	0.02	14.9	18.1	-3.26
Marcus Camby	73	72	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	9	-6	14.4	15.8	-1.42	14.6	18.7	-4.10
Kenyon Martin	48	46	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	8	-4	14.1	15.2	-1.09	14.1	17.0	-2.91
Carmelo Anthony	72	75	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	13	-14	15.5	12.0	3.54	15.7	15.2	0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 92, HOU 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.78,0.76,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.87,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	92.8%
MIN 81, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,1	92.7%
UTA 101, LAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.77,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.5%