NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	100		Excitement	3.6 [1100]		MVP	Lamar Odom (LAL): +6.7%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	1.5 [435]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -9.7%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	8	76%	0.12	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Smush Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	12	60%	0.08	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Kwame Brown	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	4	83%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	29	45%	0.06	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Sasha Vujacic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	2	33%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Brian Cook	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	9	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mihm	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	10	80%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.04	7	71%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	6	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	12	75%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.03	9	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	0.02	12	41%	-0.03	3	-0.06	5	40%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.6	27.5	16.8	26.3	2.5	31.5	130.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +27.8%

SAS -3.7%

LAL +15.1%

LAL +7.4%

LAL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.8	16.3	15.6	116.3	104.5	104.4
season	15.6	16.3		106.2	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		99.4	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.4	15.9	15.1	20.1	16.8
SAS	17.1	16.1	17.0	15.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	85	86	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-3	14	16.7	26.0	-9.32	16.6	6.0	10.56
Kwame Brown	45	46	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	0	8	17.4	16.1	1.23	15.6	17.1	-1.49
Luke Walton	52	53	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	2	4	17.6	15.6	1.94	16.0	16.8	-0.75
Smush Parker	71	72	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	4	0	16.5	18.1	-1.55	16.3	16.6	-0.30
Kobe Bryant	77	78	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	0	8	16.9	16.1	0.76	16.8	12.7	4.08
Sasha Vujacic	24	26	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	4	0	17.3	16.6	0.75	15.1	16.8	-1.76
Chris Mihm	36	36	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	-1	10	15.4	17.8	-2.36	17.6	15.4	2.19
Brian Cook	33	34	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	8	-8	15.5	17.6	-2.02	16.5	16.2	0.25
Jim Jackson	2	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	9	-10	22.0	16.7	5.33	13.0	16.4	-3.44
Andrew Bynum	5	6	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.09	-9	17	-26	21.4	16.5	4.89	14.0	16.5	-2.49

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	34	34	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.24	10	-18	28	15.2	17.0	-1.76	16.8	16.8	0.01
Sean Marks	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-11	14	11.7	16.5	-4.82	14.0	16.9	-2.86
Robert Horry	22	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-7	6	15.0	16.7	-1.70	17.3	16.6	0.73
Michael Finley	54	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-13	18	15.2	18.1	-2.84	17.5	15.7	1.79
Beno Udrih	35	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-7	6	15.9	16.6	-0.62	17.6	16.3	1.24
Manu Ginobili	55	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-6	4	16.4	16.1	0.32	17.4	15.6	1.79
Brent Barry	35	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-5	2	16.4	16.3	0.09	16.1	17.2	-1.18
Nazr Mohammed	26	25	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.13	-17	9	-26	18.9	15.2	3.70	15.0	17.5	-2.47
Bruce Bowen	60	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	-1	-6	17.0	14.8	2.25	16.9	16.6	0.33
Tony Parker	59	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	4	-16	16.3	16.3	-0.04	16.2	18.0	-1.76
Tim Duncan	57	58	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.11	-15	7	-22	16.9	15.3	1.64	16.7	17.1	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 116, CHA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.9%
MIA 96, VAN 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.45,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0	95.9%
TOR 129, CHA 111	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.1,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%