NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	4.0 [973]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +4.1%
Vancouver Grizzlies	90		Comeback	1.1 [1132]		LVP	Antonio Daniels (VAN): -11.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.04	15	47%	0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	10	65%	0.07	5	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Eric Murdock	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	80%	0.03	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.04
Jamal Mashburn	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	14	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.12	0.01	-0.08	16	49%	0.04	5	-0.06	9	78%	0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	10	42%	-0.05	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Ike Austin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	11	27%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.00	0.08	11	79%	0.06	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	100%	0.06	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	39%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	12	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Lee Mayberry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	64%	0.04	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	22	50%	-0.02	4	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	1.7	31.0	14.8	25.2	2.5	27.6	129.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +8.3%

MIA +5.7%

MIA +19.7%

MIA +14.7%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	VAN	NBA	MIA	VAN	NBA
this game	14.0	15.2	15.6	97.0	91.8	102.5
season	15.8	15.1		104.7	101.3
opponent	15.3	16.2		109.1	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	12.2	13.9	17.0	14.0
VAN	13.9	16.0	17.4	13.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	72	71	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.16	13	-7	20	13.0	16.7	-3.64	15.2	15.4	-0.25
Voshon Lenard	67	67	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	5	-4	15.1	11.8	3.31	14.9	16.0	-1.13
Alonzo Mourning	67	67	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	1	4	15.5	10.9	4.65	15.6	14.4	1.18
Tim Hardaway	80	77	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	4	-2	14.0	14.3	-0.30	14.6	17.3	-2.68
P.J. Brown	65	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	-3	12	13.1	15.8	-2.75	15.5	14.6	0.93
Dan Majerle	60	58	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.30	-2	8	-10	13.9	14.2	-0.22	14.3	16.5	-2.20
Ike Austin	51	50	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.17	2	4	-2	13.1	15.0	-1.86	16.0	14.4	1.66
Eric Murdock	19	21	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	2	2	14.3	14.0	0.30	17.3	14.6	2.68
Keith Askins	14	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	10	-14	14.9	13.9	0.97	14.9	15.3	-0.43

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	19	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-4	2	14.6	15.4	-0.80	13.2	14.2	-1.00
Sam Mack	62	63	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-11	16	15.5	14.8	0.62	13.7	14.6	-0.93
Lee Mayberry	38	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.43	10	-16	26	14.1	15.9	-1.83	13.4	14.4	-1.05
Pete Chilcutt	67	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.36	6	-12	18	14.0	17.8	-3.73	13.9	14.4	-0.50
Bryant Reeves	41	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	0	-6	17.7	13.4	4.27	15.7	12.8	2.98
Otis Thorpe	46	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.01	-9	3	-12	15.7	14.8	0.97	13.7	14.3	-0.61
George Lynch	41	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-4	2	14.8	15.6	-0.81	15.1	13.2	1.88
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	76	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	0	-6	15.3	15.0	0.29	13.5	15.8	-2.30
Antonio Daniels	60	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.11	-16	10	-26	15.9	14.1	1.83	14.4	13.4	1.05
Blue Edwards	40	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.12	-10	4	-14	14.4	15.8	-1.44	13.6	14.3	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.45,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 116, CHA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.6%
POR 110, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
NYK 100, ATL 79	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.32,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%