NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	110		Excitement	2.6 [1252]		MVP	Charlie Bell (MIL): +11.3%
Denver Nuggets	89		Comeback	1.5 [384]		LVP	T.J. Ford (MIL): -6.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.00	-0.01	10	68%	0.12	1	-0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Michael Redd	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	0.00	0.04	16	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.00	0.01	10	73%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	9	67%	0.08	1	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	9	70%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mo Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.08	0.01	-0.11	15	37%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.04	4	17%	-0.05	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.01	12	61%	0.08	2	0.00	7	100%	0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	37%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.03	-0.02	14	43%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	13	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.03	12	50%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.02	5	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	27.3	15.6	29.5	2.6	27.2	128.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +33.6%

DEN -2.8%

MIL +11.4%

MIL +6.4%

MIL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	17.2	14.1	15.6	119.6	96.7	104.4
season	15.5	14.4		104.6	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		103.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.2	15.8	17.1	19.7	17.2
DEN	13.8	14.9	14.2	13.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Bell	59	60	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.25	23	-2	25	16.3	18.6	-2.30	14.5	13.4	1.18
Michael Redd	68	67	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.14	16	5	11	18.3	14.0	4.34	13.8	15.0	-1.23
Andrew Bogut	65	64	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.05	13	8	5	17.4	16.6	0.86	13.6	15.4	-1.80
T.J. Ford	61	60	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.31	21	0	21	16.9	17.7	-0.82	13.8	14.7	-0.84
Joe Smith	48	47	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	16	-11	17.7	16.6	1.14	14.7	13.6	1.06
Jamaal Magloire	59	60	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	10	1	17.1	17.2	-0.12	13.7	14.9	-1.12
Mo Williams	34	36	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	20	-19	17.1	17.2	-0.07	14.7	13.8	0.91
Bobby Simmons	50	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	20	-19	17.2	17.2	-0.01	14.0	14.3	-0.22
Dan Gadzuric	4	5	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	16	-11	12.0	17.4	-5.40	17.2	14.0	3.23
Toni Kukoc	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	18	-15	14.7	17.3	-2.52	16.5	14.0	2.47
Ervin Johnson	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	18	-15	14.7	17.3	-2.52	16.5	14.0	2.47
Jiri Welsch	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	18	-15	14.7	17.3	-2.52	14.3	14.1	0.20

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Smith	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-16	11	16.5	14.0	2.47	14.7	17.3	-2.52
Linas Kleiza	24	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.11	3	-24	27	15.2	13.7	1.50	17.0	17.2	-0.28
Francisco Elson	13	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-19	17	14.2	14.1	0.10	16.7	17.2	-0.53
Reggie Evans	30	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	-13	5	14.7	13.9	0.88	16.6	17.5	-0.88
DerMarr Johnson	50	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.07	-6	-15	9	14.1	14.2	-0.13	17.6	16.7	0.91
Earl Boykins	46	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	-9	-3	14.8	13.5	1.24	17.1	17.3	-0.20
Marcus Camby	56	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.04	-11	-10	-1	14.0	14.3	-0.32	16.7	17.9	-1.20
Carmelo Anthony	67	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	-9	-3	13.7	15.4	-1.67	17.4	16.6	0.77
Ruben Patterson	46	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.27	-20	-1	-19	14.0	14.2	-0.20	17.4	16.9	0.47
Kenyon Martin	50	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	-7	-7	13.6	14.8	-1.27	17.7	16.6	1.09
Andre Miller	74	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.06	-18	-3	-15	14.0	14.7	-0.65	17.2	17.2	-0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, MEM 80	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
DET 114, BKN 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
ORL 108, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%