NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	76		Excitement	6.3 [563]		MVP	Rasual Butler (NOK): +18.6%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	89		Comeback	2.9 [721]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -21.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.04	-0.03	15	53%	0.18	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	70%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	67%	0.07	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	12	65%	0.09	5	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	5	8%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.09	0.01	12	39%	-0.07	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	9	72%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.09	-0.02	12	52%	0.16	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.01	0.03	13	70%	0.13	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	15	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Jackson Vroman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	15	45%	0.01	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	11	26%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.00	-0.00	6	7%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.4	29.8	12.8	29.2	1.5	29.3	130.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -3.7%

NOK +7.9%

NOK +9.5%

NOK +35.2%

NOK +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOK	NBA	SAS	NOK	NBA
this game	15.2	16.8	15.6	84.4	98.9	104.4
season	16.3	16.3		106.0	101.2
opponent	15.3	15.6		104.1	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	13.8	17.0	14.0	15.2
NOK	19.0	16.2	15.1	17.3	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	23	21	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-14	15	14.4	15.4	-0.98	18.0	16.5	1.52
Beno Udrih	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.07	-3	-10	7	11.4	15.5	-4.16	19.7	16.5	3.20
Robert Horry	38	38	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-12	11	14.6	15.6	-1.02	17.6	16.3	1.29
Brent Barry	44	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.03	-6	-7	1	15.2	15.1	0.16	15.2	18.2	-3.04
Bruce Bowen	64	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.16	-1	-12	11	15.3	14.9	0.34	17.0	16.4	0.60
Tony Parker	66	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-3	-7	15.1	15.5	-0.40	16.5	17.8	-1.28
Rasho Nesterovic	54	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-4	-5	15.6	14.6	1.02	16.3	17.7	-1.39
Nick Van Exel	24	23	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	-3	-7	16.7	14.6	2.05	15.1	17.4	-2.35
Michael Finley	67	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.17	-11	-2	-9	15.1	15.4	-0.36	17.7	14.2	3.51
Tim Duncan	62	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.10	-15	2	-17	15.4	14.6	0.76	17.1	16.3	0.77

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	31	31	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.27	16	-3	19	15.5	17.5	-2.06	16.1	14.7	1.37
Speedy Claxton	55	54	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.12	19	-6	25	16.2	17.8	-1.58	15.7	14.4	1.25
Chris Paul	80	80	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	0	13	16.4	20.1	-3.67	14.9	17.3	-2.40
David West	59	57	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.08	12	1	11	18.2	14.3	3.83	15.5	14.6	0.89
P.J. Brown	53	54	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.04	10	3	7	18.2	14.8	3.43	15.4	14.9	0.46
Desmond Mason	71	72	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.01	5	8	-3	16.6	17.8	-1.28	14.9	16.4	-1.53
Chris Andersen	21	21	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	13	-13	13.5	17.9	-4.38	13.1	15.8	-2.70
Jackson Vroman	35	36	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	17	-21	16.2	17.2	-0.99	15.2	15.1	0.14
J.R. Smith	45	45	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.01	-6	19	-25	18.3	15.4	2.96	15.2	15.2	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.26,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.76,0.95,0.97,0.89,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 83, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.3,0.23,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.44,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.89,0.79,0.97,1,1	93.2%
NOH 85, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	92.7%
NYK 103, CHI 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.37,0.59,0.85,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.91,1	92.6%