NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	104		Excitement	6.7 [491]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): +37.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	97		Comeback	4.2 [141]		LVP	Ronald Murray (SEA): -13.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.25,0.28,0.28	0.08	0.17	-0.03	15	55%	0.30	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.09	-0.00	22	53%	0.21	2	-0.05	11	91%	0.04
Keith Van Horn	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.02	4	90%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	18	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Josh Howard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.01	9	33%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.30	0.10	0.03	15	86%	0.44	1	-0.07	12	100%	0.09
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.04	0.02	21	53%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	9	48%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	5	58%	0.12	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	1	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	40%	-0.00	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.05	-0.06	18	28%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.6	28.1	18.7	36.2	2.6	37.2	150.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +24.1%

DAL +4.4%

DAL +6.6%

DAL +11.6%

DAL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SEA	NBA	DAL	SEA	NBA
this game	18.2	15.7	15.6	120.9	115.5	104.4
season	16.4	15.0		109.0	108.9
opponent	15.8	15.6		112.2	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	20.2	14.7	18.5	19.2	18.2
SEA	15.8	19.6	14.3	13.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	56	51	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.32	16	-9	25	17.0	20.4	-3.44	16.2	15.0	1.19
Dirk Nowitzki	74	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-4	15	18.2	17.7	0.58	15.2	18.9	-3.70
DeSagana Diop	35	35	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.43	3	4	-1	18.4	18.0	0.45	15.0	16.2	-1.18
Jason Terry	69	65	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.48	-5	12	-17	18.7	15.9	2.77	14.6	19.3	-4.69
Josh Howard	53	52	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	9	-11	19.4	16.2	3.21	15.3	16.4	-1.11
Darrell Armstrong	21	22	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.16	12	-5	17	15.6	19.0	-3.43	18.8	14.6	4.18
Erick Dampier	45	44	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.19	10	-3	13	18.8	17.5	1.34	17.1	14.1	2.94
Keith Van Horn	25	25	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.13	5	2	3	16.6	18.8	-2.20	18.2	14.6	3.57
Adrian Griffin	52	53	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.06	-15	22	-37	18.4	17.8	0.66	14.5	17.8	-3.35

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	34	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.31	7	-14	21	14.6	16.4	-1.75	18.6	17.8	0.76
Nick Collison	12	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.11	-10	3	-13	20.8	14.8	6.00	16.8	18.3	-1.54
Rashard Lewis	77	79	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.44	8	-15	23	15.1	22.3	-7.19	18.5	14.0	4.53
Robert Swift	43	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	5	-17	16.9	14.4	2.44	17.1	19.1	-1.99
Mikki Moore	60	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-7	7	15.2	16.9	-1.72	18.8	16.0	2.80
Damien Wilkins	45	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	7	-21	16.9	14.3	2.53	16.8	19.7	-2.86
Ray Allen	72	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	15.5	17.0	-1.53	18.2	18.2	0.01
Ronald Murray	77	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	1	-9	15.2	21.3	-6.10	18.5	13.5	5.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.16,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 93, DEN 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.05,0,0	92.8%
CHI 81, MIL 72	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.21,0.1,0,0	91.9%
OKC 115, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.36,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.16,0.03,0.05,0	91.7%