NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	81		Excitement	6.4 [548]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (CHI): +23.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	72		Comeback	2.3 [678]		LVP	Brandon Knight (MIL): -27.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.23	0.10	0.11	-0.02	10	72%	0.24	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Taj Gibson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.07	0	0.00	10	80%	0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.07	-0.05	12	53%	-0.02	3	-0.01	12	58%	-0.10
D.J. Augustin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.05	0.05	9	30%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Miroslav Raduljica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	4	83%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	-0.03	0.02	13	54%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	14	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	16	44%	0.01	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	7	21%	-0.08	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.02	5	0%	-0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.15,-0.21,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	21	27%	-0.19	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	32.4	17.4	25.5	2.3	28.7	133.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +44.7%

CHI +5.0%

MIL -12.7%

CHI +11.5%

CHI +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	16.6	17.0	15.1	93.1	85.7	105.2
season	16.3	15.7		101.1	101.4
opponent	15.1	15.3		109.7	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	18.7	16.0	14.8	17.7	16.6
MIL	19.2	16.0	16.6	16.6	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Boozer	53	53	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-1	11	17.0	16.1	0.82	17.3	16.6	0.64
Kirk Hinrich	58	58	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-1	11	17.2	15.6	1.59	17.0	17.2	-0.27
Mike Dunleavy	64	64	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	0	9	16.1	18.1	-2.02	16.6	18.5	-1.91
Jimmy Butler	71	69	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.20	10	-1	11	17.1	14.7	2.40	17.3	15.7	1.60
Nazr Mohammed	12	11	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.04	8	1	7	16.9	16.6	0.32	17.6	17.0	0.68
Taj Gibson	44	41	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	2	5	17.0	16.3	0.67	17.2	16.9	0.38
Joakim Noah	64	62	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.28	-5	14	-19	16.4	17.4	-1.08	16.7	17.9	-1.17
D.J. Augustin	44	40	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	8	-7	16.6	16.7	-0.01	17.2	16.9	0.29
Tony Snell	25	22	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	14	-19	14.9	17.4	-2.47	17.0	17.0	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	35	37	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.03	2	-11	13	16.3	17.6	-1.21	15.7	17.3	-1.64
Miroslav Raduljica	36	38	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-12	15	16.1	17.7	-1.59	17.1	16.3	0.82
Caron Butler	16	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-5	1	14.9	17.5	-2.61	15.2	17.0	-1.82
Luke Ridnour	72	75	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-7	5	16.4	20.8	-4.42	16.3	18.8	-2.54
Khris Middleton	51	53	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.25	3	-12	15	16.7	17.5	-0.82	17.2	15.7	1.54
Giannis Antetokounmpo	20	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-4	-1	18.8	16.5	2.30	16.4	16.7	-0.25
O.J. Mayo	48	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	-2	-5	15.9	18.6	-2.64	16.5	16.9	-0.45
Brandon Knight	52	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	4	-17	18.5	14.7	3.81	17.1	16.0	1.10
Ersan Ilyasova	52	53	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.26	-10	1	-11	17.4	16.5	0.83	17.1	16.0	1.06
Larry Sanders	38	39	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.24	-12	3	-15	19.2	15.3	3.85	16.8	16.5	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.21,0.1,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 115, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.36,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.16,0.03,0.05,0	93.2%
ORL 93, DEN 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.05,0,0	92.5%
CHI 95, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.22,0.18,0.33,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.01,0	92.1%