NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	8.2 [241]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +43.3%
Detroit Pistons	106		Comeback	10.2 [189]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -24.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.40	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.4	0.24	0.19	0.04	27	71%	0.44	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0.05	0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	11	64%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.12	0.07	-0.15	0.03	7	70%	0.08	2	-0.20	6	67%	-0.02
Mo Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	14	45%	0.03	4	-0.16	1	0%	-0.06
T.J. Ford	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	10	45%	-0.02	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	-0.19	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.06	0.01	7	29%	-0.08	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.43	0.43	0.12	0.34	0.03	11	70%	0.47	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.07
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.21	0.10	0.01	23	71%	0.37	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	21	45%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.07
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.14	-0.00	8	22%	-0.19	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	27.2	16.7	26.2	2.4	33.9	1.7	18.2	154.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +15.5%

DET +5.0%

MIL -15.7%

DET +40.4%

DET +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	15.5	16.1	15.6	101.0	106.0	104.4
season	15.5	16.9		104.6	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		101.4	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	14.7	16.6	17.2	14.1	14.4	15.5
DET	18.0	14.7	16.3	17.2	12.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	9	9	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	4	-12	16.0	15.5	0.53	17.0	16.0	0.96
T.J. Ford	58	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-2	0	16.4	14.3	2.11	15.8	16.6	-0.81
Jiri Welsch	17	16	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	7	-18	14.5	15.7	-1.26	14.9	16.4	-1.49
Bobby Simmons	87	86	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-8	12	15.4	16.0	-0.56	16.0	17.1	-1.18
Andrew Bogut	87	85	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.39	5	-9	14	15.5	15.4	0.10	16.0	16.6	-0.55
Jamaal Magloire	70	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-8	12	15.7	15.1	0.65	16.6	15.1	1.54
Michael Redd	86	86	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.43	5	-9	14	15.4	15.9	-0.49	16.6	13.1	3.56
Dan Gadzuric	34	35	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	5	-14	15.5	15.5	-0.02	16.0	16.2	-0.20
Mo Williams	57	55	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.31	-8	4	-12	14.8	16.4	-1.62	15.8	16.5	-0.73

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	82	84	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-3	10	16.6	14.2	2.39	15.0	18.2	-3.27
Antonio McDyess	41	44	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.11	11	-7	18	15.6	16.5	-0.84	16.2	14.9	1.30
Chauncey Billups	83	84	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	3	-2	16.6	13.9	2.71	15.2	17.1	-1.86
Maurice Evans	40	40	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	-3	10	15.3	16.7	-1.34	15.5	15.5	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	80	80	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.32	-1	5	-6	16.0	16.8	-0.84	15.7	14.7	1.07
Ben Wallace	79	78	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.33	-2	6	-8	16.6	14.5	2.03	14.9	17.7	-2.82
Tayshaun Prince	78	78	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.32	-6	10	-16	16.1	16.3	-0.18	16.1	13.5	2.58
Carlos Arroyo	17	17	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	1	2	13.9	16.6	-2.71	17.1	15.2	1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.92,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.77,0.95,0.54,0.61,0.45,0.09,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 102, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.85,0.85,0.72,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,1	90.0%
NOH 88, HOU 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.46,0.53,0.37,0.06,0.42,1	89.4%
MIN 112, NJN 117	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.77,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.87,0.9,0.79,0.94,0.95,0.46,0.53,0.37,0.22,0.59,1	89.3%