NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	118		Excitement	5.0 [838]		MVP	Bobby Simmons (MIL): +16.7%
Atlanta Hawks	102		Comeback	1.4 [476]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -11.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Simmons	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.19	0.02	0.05	10	89%	0.21	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Michael Redd	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	23	58%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jiri Welsch	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	61%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Mo Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	8	70%	0.10	6	-0.09	11	100%	0.02
Reece Gaines	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	8	67%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.04	3	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	9	36%	-0.04	2	-0.05	10	60%	-0.04

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.13	-0.01	0.07	16	68%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.02	0.04	8	73%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Esteban Batista	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	10	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	15	43%	0.02	5	-0.12	5	60%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	15	36%	-0.07	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	13	30%	-0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	29.4	16.3	27.5	2.4	37.4	139.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +35.1%

MIL +14.3%

MIL +1.8%

ATL -1.7%

MIL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.5	15.6	116.8	102.0	104.4
season	15.5	15.6		104.6	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.3	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.9	13.4	12.6	12.2	14.1
ATL	11.9	16.0	16.2	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	68	66	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.08	22	-6	28	15.1	12.1	3.01	14.8	14.0	0.82
Mo Williams	65	66	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.07	16	0	16	12.8	16.6	-3.79	14.3	14.9	-0.56
Jiri Welsch	70	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	6	4	12.7	17.3	-4.53	14.2	15.3	-1.18
Dan Gadzuric	49	49	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	7	2	12.4	15.7	-3.32	14.3	14.8	-0.54
Toni Kukoc	42	41	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	3	10	12.5	15.2	-2.69	14.2	14.8	-0.54
Jamaal Magloire	48	48	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	10	-4	16.3	12.2	4.10	14.7	14.4	0.28
Andrew Bogut	52	51	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	9	-2	15.7	12.4	3.32	14.8	14.3	0.54
Bobby Simmons	72	72	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	16	-16	14.6	13.0	1.52	14.3	15.1	-0.84
Jermaine Jackson	31	31	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	18	-20	17.0	12.9	4.11	15.2	14.2	0.95
Reece Gaines	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	9.2	14.5	-5.29	17.4	14.3	3.08

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Esteban Batista	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-17	18	17.4	14.3	3.08	9.2	14.5	-5.29
Royal Ivey	21	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-16	16	14.7	14.5	0.22	17.0	13.3	3.63
Josh Smith	58	60	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-8	0	13.7	15.7	-2.07	16.0	11.4	4.59
Josh Childress	68	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-5	-6	14.1	15.4	-1.27	12.9	16.7	-3.81
Salim Stoudamire	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	-5	-6	14.8	13.8	1.00	12.6	17.7	-5.05
Al Harrington	75	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-3	-10	14.2	15.6	-1.47	14.9	11.6	3.29
Zaza Pachulia	61	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-6	-4	14.9	14.0	0.89	15.2	12.6	2.58
Joe Johnson	75	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.03	-15	-1	-14	14.5	14.6	-0.13	14.6	12.6	1.97
Marvin Williams	63	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	-3	-10	15.2	13.5	1.72	12.4	16.9	-4.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 87, VAN 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	94.8%
PHX 97, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
POR 105, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.26,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.8%